Routine transcutaneous bilirubin measurements combined with clinical risk factors improve the prediction of subsequent hyperbilirubinemia

Abstract

To evaluate predischarge transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) measurements combined with risk factors as predictors of the risk of a subsequent total serum bilirubin (TSB) >or=17 mg per 100 ml (291 micromol l(-1)). Routine TcB measurements are obtained daily for all infants in our well baby nursery. We performed a nested case-control study comparing all 75 infants who had been readmitted with TSB >or=17 mg per 100 ml (291 micromol l(-1)) between 1 February 2005 and 28 February 2007 with randomly selected controls that had not been readmitted. Between 1 February 2005 and 28 February 2007, 11 456 infants were discharged from the well baby nursery. Seventy-five infants (0.65%) were readmitted at a mean age of 110+/-29.9 h with a TSB>or=17 mg per 100 ml (291 micromol l(-1)). All received phototherapy. Using logistic regression analysis, three variables were statistically significant for predicting cases: the maximum predischarge TcB percentile group (P<0.0001, adjusted odds ratio (AOR), >95th percentile 148; 95% confidence interval (CI) 21 to >999, AOR 76 to 95th percentile 15; 95% CI 3.1 to 70, AOR 50 to 75th percentile 6.1; 95% CI 1.3 to 28 compared with <50th percentile), exclusive breastfeeding (P<0.0001, AOR 11; 95% CI 3.7 to 34) and gestational age (P=0.0057, AOR 35 to 36 6/7 week 21; 95% CI 2.3 to 185, AOR 37 to 37 6/7 week 15; 95% CI 1.9 to 115, AOR 38 to 38 6/7 week 1.8; 95% CI 0.3 to 11, AOR 39 to 39 6/7 week 1.1; 95% CI 0.2 to 7 AOR >or=41 week 0.88; 95% CI 0.1 to 10 compared with 40 to 40 6/7 week infants). These three variables provided the best prediction of a case (c=0.885, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and this prediction was significantly better than the use of the clinical risk factors, gestation and exclusive breastfeeding, alone (c=0.770, P<0.001) or the TcB percentile grouping alone (c=0.766, P<0.001). Substituting the TcB rate of rise (c=0.903, P=0.316) or the last measured TcB (c=0.873, P=0.292) for the maximum TcB measurement did not significantly improve the predictors of a case. Combining predischarge TcB levels with two clinical risk factors-gestational age and exclusive breastfeeding-significantly improves the prediction of subsequent hyperbilirubinemia.