Role of the oceanic channel in the relationships between the basin/dipole mode of SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO transition

Abstract

The relationships between the tropical Indian Ocean basin (IOB)/dipole (IOD) mode of SST anomalies (SSTAs) and ENSO phase transition during the following year are examined and compared in observations for the period 1958–2008. Both partial correlation analysis and composite analysis show that both the positive (negative) phase of the IOB and IOD (independent of each other) in the tropical Indian Ocean are possible contributors to the El Nino (La Nina) decay and phase transition to La Nina (El Nino) about one year later. However, the influence on ENSO transition induced by the IOB is stronger than that by the IOD. The SSTAs in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the coming year originate from subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Ocean, induced by the IOB and IOD through eastward and upward propagation to meet the surface. During this process, however the contribution of the oceanic channel process between the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans is totally different for the IOB and IOD. For the IOD, the influence of the Indonesian Throughflow transport anomalies could propagate to the eastern Pacific to induce the ENSO transition. For the IOB, the impact of the oceanic channel stays and disappears in the western Pacific without propagation to the eastern Pacific.