Abstract
With the continuous growth and connectedness of the human population, there is an increased threat of emerging and re-emerging diseases. These threats are often exacerbated by the environmental and sociopolitical crises facing humanity. The unprecedented speed at which the COVID-19 pandemic spread worldwide highlights the urgent need to address the issues that increase risks of disease emergence and spread. Such risks can be addressed through bolstering global surveillance and increasing concerted efforts to mitigate disease spread locally. After local emergence of any disease, an understanding of the geographical risks of widespread transmssion is fundamental for preparedness and resource allocation strategies to contain the disease before it becomes a global health emergency. For re-emerging diseases, it is crucial to evaluate the immunity landscape. In The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Juliana C Taube and colleagues 1 Taube JC Rest EC Lloyd-Smith JO Bansal S The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022; (Published online Nov 28, 2022.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00664-8 Google Scholar use demographic modelling to generate a comprehensive and granular global immunity landscape for smallpox vaccination coverage. The authors developed an innovative approach that incorporates country-specific historical vaccination data with data on demographic growth to assess age-distributed pre-existing smallpox immunity, a proxy for orthopoxvirus immunity. The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling studyThe legacy of smallpox eradication can be observed in the current landscape of smallpox vaccine protection. The strength and longevity of smallpox vaccination campaigns globally, combined with current demographic heterogeneity, have shaped the epidemiological landscape today, revealing substantial geographical variation in orthopoxvirus susceptibility. This study alerts public health decision makers to non-endemic regions that might be at greatest risk in the case of widespread and sustained transmission in the 2022 monkeypox outbreak and highlights the importance of demography and fine-scale spatial dynamics in predicting future public health risks from orthopoxviruses. Full-Text PDF
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