Abstract
In recent years, there has been increasing research on the impact of climate change related processes on the occurrence of conflicts in different parts of the world. Analysis of conflicts over extended time periods indicate the possible role of climate change and climate variability on the occurrence of conflicts, particularly in the tropics. With the recent release of the UCDP georeferenced dataset on specific locations of conflicts between 1989 and 2014, we can now examine the temporal patterns of conflicts at a finer spatial resolution. In this study, the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal patterns of conflicts has been analyzed by using a variety of geospatial analysis techniques. The results of the analysis reveal that there were a greater number of conflicts during El Niño years at both the global and continental scale (except North America). In addition, the spatial patterns of conflicts showed greater concentration of intensifying and consecutive hot spots in South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Africa during El Niño years vs. La Niña years. Specifically, intensifying hot spots of conflicts overlapped with the relatively arid and semi-arid areas of the Global South.
Highlights
The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the potential role of climate change on the increasing rivalry between and within countries over shared resources
The main objective of the present study is to examine the role of widely researched global teleconnection, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatial patterns of hotspots intensity of conflicts
Except for North America, the number of conflicts was higher during El Niño years vs. La Niña years
Summary
The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the potential role of climate change on the increasing rivalry between and within countries over shared resources. One of the main reasons attributed to the increase in conflicts due to climate change is droughts, which lead to a shortage of staple food crops, thereby resulting in the decline in primary sources of income along with widespread hunger. This further results in the propensity of rural to urban migration and civil unrest and in some cases violent conflicts (Burke et al, 2009; Zhang et al, 2011). This food insecurity has led to armed and violent conflicts in several parts of the African continent (Burke et al, 2009; Benjaminsen et al, 2012; O’Loughlin et al, 2012, 2014; Carter and Veale, 2014)
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