Abstract
Some coupled land–climate models predict a dieback of Amazon forest during the twenty-first century due to climate change, but human land use in the region has already reduced the forest cover. The causation behind land use is complex, and includes economic, institutional, political and demographic factors. Pre-eminent among these factors is road building, which facilitates human access to natural resources that beget forest fragmentation. While official government road projects have received considerable attention, unofficial road building by interest groups is expanding more rapidly, especially where official roads are being paved, yielding highly fragmented forest mosaics. Effective governance of natural resources in the Amazon requires a combination of state oversight and community participation in a ‘hybrid’ model of governance. The MAP Initiative in the southwestern Amazon provides an example of an innovative hybrid approach to environmental governance. It embodies a polycentric structure that includes government agencies, NGOs, universities and communities in a planning process that links scientific data to public deliberations in order to mitigate the effects of new infrastructure and climate change.
Highlights
While there is variation among coupled land–climate models as to prospects for the Amazon basin (Li et al 2006), recent findings from the Hadley Centre model suggest a widespread forest dieback there in the twentyfirst century
Deforestation and forest fragmentation have negative ecological consequences (Bierregaard et al 2001), which implies that Amazonia in the twenty-first century may be more vulnerable than climate models assume
We focus on road building, a key determinant of land use in the Amazon
Summary
While there is variation among coupled land–climate models as to prospects for the Amazon basin (Li et al 2006), recent findings from the Hadley Centre model suggest a widespread forest dieback there in the twentyfirst century (other articles, this volume). Deforestation and forest fragmentation have negative ecological consequences (Bierregaard et al 2001), which implies that Amazonia in the twenty-first century may be more vulnerable than climate models assume. This raises important questions about the drivers of forest clearing and fragmentation (Gutman et al 2004; Lambin & Geist 2006), and how they operate in the Amazon (Perz 2002; Wood & Porro 2002). The ecological vulnerability of the Amazon, it is instrumental for the viability of contemporary economic activity in the region and can cause social conflicts Given these road impacts, we argue that innovative models of governance are needed to mitigate the negative socio-economic and ecological effects of roads, as well as the prospective impacts of climate change on the Amazon. State–society engagement across such boundaries will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of new infrastructure as well as climate change
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