Risk score prediction for bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in northwest Ethiopia: prognostic model development.
This study was aimed at developing a risk score prediction model for bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (TB) among adults with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. An institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 569 adults with HIV on ART. We used demographic and clinical prognostic factors to develop a risk prediction model. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination and calibration using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration plot. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility. Opportunistic infection, functional status, anemia, isoniazid preventive therapy, and WHO clinical stages were used to develop risk prediction. The AUROC curve of the original model was 87.53% [95% confidence interval (CI): 83.88-91.25] and the calibration plot ( P -value = 0.51). After internal validation, the AUROC curve of 86.61% (95% CI: 82.92-90.29%) was comparable with the original model, with an optimism coefficient of 0.0096 and good calibration ( P -value = 0.10). Our model revealed excellent sensitivity (92.65%) and negative predictive value (NPV) (98.60%) with very good specificity (70.06%) and accuracy (72.76%). After validation, accuracy (74.85%) and specificity (76.27%) were improved, but sensitivity (86.76%) and NPV (97.66%) were relatively reduced. The risk prediction model had a net benefit up to 7.5 threshold probabilities. This prognostic model had very good performance. Moreover, it had very good sensitivity and excellent NPV. The model could help clinicians use risk estimation and stratification for early diagnosis and treatment to improve patient outcomes and quality of life.
- Research Article
4
- 10.1186/s12879-022-07691-x
- Sep 7, 2022
- BMC Infectious Diseases
BackgroundOver 420,000 people have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia; however, lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) rates continues to be high. A clinical decision tool is needed to identify patients at higher risk for LTFU to provide individualized risk prediction to intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a statistical risk prediction tool that predicts the probability of LTFU among adult clients on ART.MethodsA retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 432 clients on ART in Gondar Town, northwest, Ethiopia. Prognostic determinates included in the analysis were determined by multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the model discriminative ability and predictive accuracy, respectively. Individual risk prediction for LTFU was determined using both regression formula and score chart rule. Youden index value was used to determine the cut-point for risk classification. The clinical utility of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe incidence of LTFU was 11.19 (95% CI 8.95–13.99) per 100-persons years of observation. Potential prognostic determinants for LTFU were rural residence, not using prophylaxis (either cotrimoxazole or Isoniazid or both), patient on appointment spacing model (ASM), poor drug adherence level, normal Body mass index (BMI), and high viral load (viral copies > 1000 copies/ml). The AUROC was 85.9% (95% CI 82.0–89.6) for the prediction model and the risk score was 81.0% (95% CI 76.7–85.3) which was a good discrimination probability. The maximum sensitivity and specificity of the probability of LTFU using the prediction model were 72.07% and 83.49%, respectively. The calibration plot of the model was good (p-value = 0.350). The DCA indicated that the model provides a higher net benefit following patients based on the risk prediction tool.ConclusionThe incidence of LTFU among clients on ART in Gondar town was high (> 3%). The risk prediction model presents an accurate and easily applicable prognostic prediction tool for clients on ART. A prospective follow-up study and external validation of the model is warranted before using the model.
- Research Article
44
- 10.1186/s12955-022-01985-z
- May 8, 2022
- Health and quality of life outcomes
BackgroundPeople living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) are frequently confronted with severe social issues such as rejection, abandonment, criticism, and stigma. This would negatively affect their quality of life. Several studies have been conducted so far to assess factors affecting the health-related quality of life among people living with HIV/AIDS who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia. However, to our knowledge, there is no previous study that has summarized the results of the studies that investigated health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among PLWHA in Ethiopia. Therefore, the purpose of this review was to estimate the pooled prevalence of HRQOL and its association with social support among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) on ART in Ethiopia.MethodsA systematic search was carried out using several electronic databases (PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, and Cochrane electronic), Google Scholar, Google, and a manual search of the literature on health-related quality of life among people living with HIV/AIDS who are on ART. A Microsoft Excel data extraction sheet was used to extract pertinent data from an individual study. To assess the heterogeneity of primary articles, the Cochrane Q test statistics and the I2 test were carried out, and a random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of HRQOL.ResultOut of the 493 articles reviewed, ten with a total of 3257 study participants were eligible for meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of HRQOL among people living with HIV/AIDS who are on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia was 45.27%. We found that strong perceived social support was significantly associated with higher levels of subjectively perceived HRQOL. PLWHA who were on ART and had good social support were four times more likely to report higher HRQOL when compared to their counterparts [AOR = 4.01, 95% CI 3.07–5.23].ConclusionA substantial number of PLWHA had poor HRQOL in Ethiopia. Social support was significantly associated with HRQOL among people living with HIV/AIDS. Hence, it’s recommended to encourage suitable intervention at every follow-up visit, and psycho-social support is also warranted to improve the quality of life.
- Research Article
8
- 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-087569
- Nov 1, 2024
- BMJ Open
ObjectiveThis study aimed to pool the prevalence of virological failure and associated factors.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Primary outcome measurePrevalence of virological failure.Secondary outcome measureFactors affecting virological failure.AnalysisThe extracted data were exported...
- Research Article
2
- 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1385441
- Jul 2, 2024
- Frontiers in public health
The effect of dolutegravir (DTG)-based regimens on reducing attrition from care among women enrolled in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) care program is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the incidence of attrition among women exposed to DTG-based with those exposed to efavirenz (EFV)-based first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia. An uncontrolled before-and-after study was conducted involving 932 women (with 466 on EFV-based and 466 on DTG-based regimens) who were enrolled in the PMTCT care program from September 2015 to February 2023. The outcome variable was attrition (i.e., maternal death or loss to follow-up before their infants' final HIV status was determined). A Kaplan-Meier estimator was employed to estimate the probability of attrition. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted to identify predictor variables. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to examine the risk difference in the comparison groups. The cumulative incidence of attrition among women was 5.2% (3.0% for those placed in the DTG-based regimen arm and 7.3% for those placed in the EFV-based regimen arm). Women on DTG-based regimens had a 57% (aHR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.23-0.80) lower risk of attrition from care compared to those on EFV-based regimens. Women who delivered their infants at home (aHR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.14-4.85), had poor/fair adherence (aHR: 3.23; 95% CI: 1.62-6.45), had unsuppressed/unknown viral load status (aHR: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.42-4.79), and did not disclose their status to partners (aHR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.34-4.92) had a higher risk of attrition from PMTCT care compared to their counterparts. The cumulative incidence of attrition among women receiving PMTCT care is optimal. In addition, the risk of attrition among women receiving DTG-based regimens is lower than that among women receiving EFV-based regimens. Thus, DTG-based first-line ART regimen supplementation should be sustained to achieve a national retention target of 95% and above.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1186/s12879-025-10945-z
- Apr 12, 2025
- BMC Infectious Diseases
BackgroundDespite significant efforts to enhance access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), opportunistic infections among children on ART remain a major concern in low-income countries, including Ethiopia. Currently, there are no pooled estimates of opportunistic infections incidence among children on ART in Ethiopia. Consequently, this review aimed to determine the pooled incidence and identify the predictors of opportunistic infections among children under 15 years of age on ART, addressing the existing information gap.MethodsThis systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and relevant studies were obtained from the PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases. Data analysis for pooled estimates of incidence and predictors of opportunistic infections was conducted via STATA 17 software with random-effects model. Heterogeneity was evaluated via Cochrane's Q-test and the I2 statistic, and publication bias was assessed through funnel plots and Egger's test.ResultsOf the 5,631 studies identified, 20 studies involving 9,196 participants were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled incidence of opportunistic infections among children under 15 years of age on antiretroviral therapy was 5.61 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.37–6.86), based on 36,716.4 person-years of observation. Predictors of opportunistic infections included advanced WHO clinical stage (HR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.35–1.55), poor ART adherence (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.35–1.63), lack of isoniazid (HR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.40–1.74) and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (HR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.38–1.66), malnutrition (HR 1.50, 95% CI: 1.34–1.67), and severe immunosuppression (HR 1.39, 95% CI: 1.27–1.51).ConclusionThe incidence of opportunistic infections in this review was high, highlighting the need for intensified efforts to achieve the 2030 target. Moreover, advanced WHO clinical stage, poor adherence, lack of isoniazid and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, malnutrition, and severe immunosuppression were identified as predictors of opportunistic infections. This suggests that early initiation of ART, regular nutritional assessments, intensive follow-up and monitoring, and a multidisciplinary approach need be prioritized to address the identified predictors.
- Research Article
6
- 10.1371/journal.pone.0306651
- Jul 5, 2024
- PloS one
Globally, Tuberculosis (TB) is the main cause of morbidity and mortality among infectious disease. TB and Human Immune Virus (HIV) are the two deadly pandemics which interconnected each other tragically, and jeopardize the lives of children; particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this review was aimed to determine the aggregated national pooled incidence of tuberculosis among HIV- infected children and its predictors in Ethiopia. An electronic search engine (HINARI, PubMed, Scopus, web of science), Google scholar and free Google databases were searched to find eligible studies. Quality of the studies was checked using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) quality assessment checklists for cohort studies. Heterogeneity between studies was evaluated using Cochrane Q-test and the I2 statistics. This review revealed that the pooled national incidence of tuberculosis among children with HIV after initiation of ART was 3.63% (95% CI: 2.726-4.532) per 100-person-years observations. Being Anemic, poor and fair ART adherence, advanced WHO clinical staging, missing of cotrimoxazole and isoniazid preventing therapy, low CD4 cell count, and undernutrition were significant predictors of tuberculosis incidence. The study result indicated that the incidence of TB among HIV- infected children is still high. Therefore, parents/guardians should strictly follow and adjust nutritional status of their children to boost immunity, prevent undernutrition and opportunistic infections. Cotrimoxazole and isoniazid preventive therapy need to continually provide for HIV- infected children for the sake of enhancing CD4/immune cells, reduce viral load, and prevent from advanced disease stages. Furthermore, clinicians and parents strictly follow ART adherence.
- Research Article
9
- 10.11648/j.ijhnm.20210701.11
- Jan 1, 2021
- International Journal of Homeopathy & Natural Medicines
Under nutrition and human immune deficiency virus/HIV have a vicious cycle. This study aimed to assess the pooled prevalence of under nutrition and determinants among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. Google scholar, PubMed, Cochrane library and web of science data bases were searched. Studies were assessed using risk of bias assessment tool. The heterogeneity of study was assessed using I2 test statistics. Data were pooled and a random effect meta-analysis model was fitted to provide the prevalence of under nutrition. Twenty-one studies that satisfy the eligibility criteria were included. The pooled prevalence of under nutrition among adults receiving ART was 27.4% (95% CI: 24.4-31.4). The pooled analysis showed that lack of RUTF was more likely to lead to under nutrition [AOR=2.34 (95%CI: 1.85- 3.85)]. Also under nutrition was more likely among adults receiving ART with WHO clinical stage four [AOR=2.01 (95%CI: 1.91- 3.82). The pooled prevalence of under nutrition was high and Lack of RUTF as well as WHO clinical stage 4 showed significant associations with under nutrition. This finding has implication to develop policy to improve under nutrition and to continue RUTF supplement program as an integral part of HIV/AIDS continuum of care.
- Research Article
14
- 10.33696/aids.1.008
- Nov 22, 2019
- Journal of AIDS and HIV Treatment
Background: Treatment failure (TF) among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) impacts on treatment outcome and is becoming a public health concern globally. However, magnitude of TF and factors leading to it are poorly defined in the context of Ethiopia. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of TF and assess its determinants among HIV-infected patients on ART in Ethiopia. Methods: A prospective and retrospective study was conducted from March 2016 to 2017. Retrospective clinical and laboratory data were captured from patients’ medical record. Socio-demographics and explanatory variables of participants were collected using pre-tested structured questionnaire and study participants were followed for additional 6 month after baseline viral load has been done to classify virologic failure (VF). Multiple logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors associated with TF. Statistical significance was set at P-value less than 0.05. Results: A total of 9,284 adults taking ART from a nationally representative 63 health facilities were included in the study. Viral Load Suppression (VLS) (VL1000 copies/ml at baseline of the study were re-suppressed after six months of enhanced adherence and counseling, leading TF among population on ART in Ethiopia to be 983 (11%). Immunologic and clinical failure was significantly improved from 21.5% and 16.5% at ART initiation to 576 (6.2%) and 470 (5.0%) at baseline of the study, respectively. Medication adherence, disclosure of HIV status, missed appointment to ART, history of ART exposure prior to initiation, residency and marital status had significant association with TF. Conclusions: The high level of VLS (88.1%) could explain the success of ART program in Ethiopia towards achieving the UNAIDS global target on viral suppression. TF among population taking ART in Ethiopia is still a public health concern, since 11% of virally failed population is maintained on failed first-line regimen. However, a significant improvement on immunologic and clinical outcome after ART initiation was maintained. Close follow-up of medication adherence, ensuring disclosure of HIV status, regular appointment follow-up to ART could significantly improve the treatment outcome of population on ART in Ethiopia.
- Research Article
9
- 10.1016/j.jgar.2022.07.019
- Jul 30, 2022
- Journal of Global Antimicrobial Resistance
The aim of this study was to evaluate HIV-1 drug resistance among patients failing first-line antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. A total of 699 adults infected with HIV (aged ≥15 years) who failed first-line Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) were recruited between 2017 and 2019 from 63 ART-providing sites in Ethiopia. Treatment failure was defined as patients with two consecutive viral loads (VLs) ≥1000 copies/mL within six months of follow-up. The pol gene region of HIV-1 was amplified and sequenced using an in-house assay of the Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The Stanford HIVDB v9.0 algorithm was used for identification of resistance mutations. Resistance mutations were characterized according to the 2019 International AIDS Society-USA mutation list. P values of <0.05 were considered statistically significant during multivariate analysis, which was done using SPSS v26.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL). Overall, HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) among patients failing first-line therapy in Ethiopia was 77.8%. Non-nucleoside/tide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) and NRTI resistance were 75.7% and 71.2%, respectively. Neverapine (NVP) and Efavirenz (EFV) accounted for 74.2% and 60.8% of HIVDR, respectively. About half (48.1%) of NRTI-associated mutations were responsible for Abacavir resistance, while 34% were responsible for multi-NRTI resistance. Mutations responsible for resistance to the commonly used EFV and NVP accounted for 62.9%, while resistance to Etravirine, Doravirine, and Rilivirine, which were not part of the country's ART program, were 37.1%, and can be explained by cross-resistance within the drug class. Protease Inhebitor(PI)associated resistance was detected in only 1.6% of the study's participants. The most common mutations identified were M184V (30.1%), K103N (18.7%), Y181C (13.6%), and K65R (12.1%). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, predictors of HIVDR were prior ART exposure (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.8, 3.6), absence of HIV status disclosure (AOR=2.05; 95%CI=1.26, 3.35), CD4 count of ≤200 cells/mm3 (AOR=1.94; 95%CI=1.21, 3.12), and bedridden status (AOR=4.16; 95% CI=3.21, 5.16). The high-levels of HIVDR among patients with failure of first-line ART in Ethiopia calls for individualized HIVDR testing. Mutations associated with multi-NRTI and NNRTI cross-resistance may alert the program for considering drugs of higher genetic barrier targeting protease and other regions. Patients with low CD4 count and those who are bedridden should be given special attention for the potential development of HIVDR during clinical management.
- Research Article
12
- 10.1186/s41182-020-00224-9
- May 22, 2020
- Tropical Medicine and Health
IntroductionHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection results in a gradual depletion of immune function, particularly CD4 cells. The CD4 assessment plays a significant role in assessing treatment responses and clinical decision-making for patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. However, new data on CD4 count changes are scarce; the volatility of CD4 counts after initiation of ART over time remains largely uncharacterized. This study aimed to identify the predictors of CD4 changes over time among HIV-infected children who began ART in Amhara, Ethiopia.MethodsA retrospective follow-up study was performed. A total of 983 HIV-infected children who initiated ART in government hospitals in the Amhara region between 2010 and 2016 were included using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted using a structured checklist. An exploratory data analysis was carried out to explain individual and average profile plots. The linear mixed model was used to identify the CD4 change count predictors over time. Variables with p value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant in a multivariable linear mixed regression analysis.ResultsThe mean CD4 count of the participants was 465.1 cells/mm3 with an average CD4 count increase of 30.06 cells/mm3 over 6 months from baseline CD4 count and ART initiation. Childhood age (β = − 0.015; 95% Cl − 0.021, − 0.009), opportunistic infection at ART initiation (β = − 0.044, 95% CI − 0.085, − 0.004), hemoglobin level (β = 0.013; 95% CI 0.004, 0.022), and baseline WHO clinical stage II (β = − 0.046, 95% CI − 0.091, − 0.0003) were significant predictors of CD4 changes over time.ConclusionsThe average CD4 count increase was sufficient in HIV patients who began combined antiretroviral therapy over time. The younger age of the infant, the higher baseline level of hemoglobin, the baseline WHO clinical stage II, and opportunistic infections led to changes in CD4 counts. As a result, timely diagnosis and treatment of opportunistic infections will reduce the risk of opportunistic infections.
- Research Article
27
- 10.2147/hiv.s252391
- Jul 2, 2020
- HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.)
BackgroundThe development of antiretroviral drugs and subsequent access to combined antiretroviral therapy contributed to the decline in morbidity and mortality rates associated with acquired immune deficiency syndrome, resulting in an increased life expectancy and improved quality of life for people living with human immunodeficiency virus. However, a cluster of metabolic derangements such as dyslipidemia is increasing, especially for those on antiretroviral therapy. Limited studies were done on the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its associated factors among adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia which demand the conduct of the present investigation entitled on the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its associated factors among adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Armed Force Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2018.MethodsInstitution-based cross-sectional study design was employed between March and April 2018. Systematic sampling method was used to select 353 study participants. Pretested stepwise approach of the World Health Organization questionnaire (WHO Stepwise), document review, anthropometric measurements, and laboratory analysis were used to collect data on different variables under the study. Collected data were entered in Epidata version 3 and analyzed by SPSS version 21.ResultsThe prevalence of dyslipidemia among study participants was 74.8%. Female participants were twice and half at risk of developing dyslipidemia compared to males (AOR= 2.38; 95% CI: 1.15, 3.66). Similarly, compared to those attended college level of education, not attended formal education (AOR=0.19; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.66), and having primary/secondary educational level (AOR= 0.33; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.66) showed lower odds to develop dyslipidemia. Furthermore, WHO clinical stage II (AOR= 0.35; 95% CI: 0.14,0.92), stage III (AOR=0.25; 95% CI:0.10,0.64), duration on ART (AOR= 1.01; 95% CI: 1.001,1.02), and BMI (AOR =1.13; 95% CI: 1.06,1.23) were significantly associated with dyslipidemia.ConclusionThere exists a high prevalence of dyslipidemia among study participants. Sex, educational status, WHO clinical stage, duration on ART, and BMI were significantly associated factors for dyslipidemia. Intervention strategies including the identified factors are demanded in the setting.
- Research Article
29
- 10.1186/s13104-018-3863-y
- Oct 25, 2018
- BMC Research Notes
ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to identify the major risk factors, which contributed to shortened survival time to death of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. Six-hundred HIV patients were included from two hospitals and six health centers record from January 2003 to December 2017. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazard model were implemented.ResultsFrom the Kaplan–Meier, log-rank test result indicated that there was a significant difference between tuberculosis comorbidity (P = .000), occupation (P = .027), and WHO clinical stage (P = .012) on the survival experience of patients at 5% statistical significance level. From the Cox regression result, the risk of death for patients who lived with tuberculosis was about 2.872-fold times higher than those patients who were negative. Most of the HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral therapy were died in a short period due to tuberculosis comorbidity, began with lower amount of CD4, being underweight, merchant, and being on WHO clinical stage IV.
- Research Article
7
- 10.1093/ofid/ofae168
- Mar 21, 2024
- Open forum infectious diseases
Achieving viral load suppression is crucial for the prevention of complications and deaths related to HIV infection. Ethiopia has embraced the worldwide 95-95-95 target, but there is no national representative information regarding virological suppression. Therefore, this review aims to determine the pooled virological suppression rate and identify the pooled effect of contributing factors of viral suppression for HIV-positive patients on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. We systematically searched websites and databases, including online repositories, to obtain primary studies. Two reviewers assessed the quality of the included articles using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale appraisal checklist. Publication bias was checked using Egger's regression test, the heterogeneity of the studies was assessed using I2 statistics and Q statistics, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify any outlier results in the included studies. The Der Simonian Laird random-effects model was used to estimate the overall proportion of viral suppression, and STATA 17 statistical software was used for all types of analysis. A total of 21 eligible articles primarily conducted in Ethiopia using HIV program data were used for this quantitative synthesis. The overall pooled virological suppression rate was 71% (95% CI, 64%-77%). The pooled effects of poor adherence to ART (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.33; 95% CI, 0.28-0.40), body mass index (18.5-24.9 kg/m2; AOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.37-2.36), disclosure (AOR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.05-1.89), absence of opportunistic infection (AOR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.43-1.97), and high baseline viral load count (AOR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.81) were identified as significant predictors of viral suppression. The overall pooled percentage of virological suppression was low compared with the global target of viral suppression and the Ethiopian Public Health Institute report. Poor adherence, normal body mass index, disclosure, absence of opportunistic infection, and high baseline viral load count were factors contributing to viral suppression in Ethiopia. Responsible stakeholders should maximize their efforts to achieve the global target of virological suppression by addressing significant predictors.
- Research Article
2
- 10.1186/s12889-024-19579-3
- Jul 31, 2024
- BMC Public Health
BackgroundHuman Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) continues to be the major cause of childhood deaths, particularly in the sub-Saharan African region. In Ethiopia, though several primary studies have been conducted on the incidence of HIV-related child mortality, the pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children is unknown. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children and identify its associated factors in Ethiopia.MethodsWe browsed PubMed, HINARI, Science Direct, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, and cross-references using different search terms to identify articles. Quality appraisal was done using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. Meta-package was used to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and hazard ratio (HR) of predictors. Heterogeneity was tested using the I-square statistics. Publication bias was tested using a funnel plot visual inspection and Egger’s test. Data was presented using forest plots and tables. The random effect model was used to compute the pooled estimate.ResultsThe overall pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children was 2.52 (95% CI: 1.82, 3.47) per 100 child years. Advanced HIV disease (hazard ratio (HR): 3.45, 95% CI (Confidence Interval): 2.64, 4.51), tuberculosis co-infection (HR: 3.19, 95% CI: 2.08, 4.88), stunting (3.22, 95% CI: 2.46, 4.22), underweight (HR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.72, 4.26), wasting (HR: 4.14, 95% CI: 2.27, 7.58), didn’t receive Isoniazid preventive therapy (HR: 3.33, 95% CI: 2.22, 4.99), anemia (HR: 3.03, 95% CI: 2.52, 3.64), fair or poor antiretroviral therapy adherence (HR: 4.14, 95% CI: 3.28, 5.28) and didn’t receive cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (HR: 3.82, 95% CI: 2.49, 5.86) were factors associated with a higher hazard of HIV related child mortality.ConclusionsThe overall pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children was high in Ethiopia as compared to the national strategy target. Therefore, counseling on antiretroviral therapy adherence should be strengthened. Regular monitoring of hemoglobin levels and assessment of nutritional status should be done for all children living with HIV. Moreover, healthcare professionals should follow the national HIV treatment guidelines and provide cotrimoxazole preventive therapy and Isoniazid preventive therapy up on the guidelines for children living with HIV.RegistrationRegistered in PROSPERO with ID: CRD42023486902.
- Research Article
4
- 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003528
- Aug 2, 2024
- PLOS global public health
Despite effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in reducing mortality of opportunistic infections among HIV infected children, however tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant cause for morbidity and attributed for one in every three deaths. HIV-infected children face disproportionate death risk during co-infection of TB due to their young age and miniatures immunity makes them more vulnerable. In Ethiopia, there is lack of aggregated data TB and HIV mortality in HIV infected children. We conducted an extensive systematic review of literature using Preferred Reporting of Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guideline. Five electronic databases were used mainly Scopus, PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, and Google scholar for articles searching. The pooled proportion of TB was estimated using a weighted inverse variance random-effects meta-regression using STATA version-17. Heterogeneity of the articles was evaluated using Cochran's Q test and I2 statistic. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity test, and Egger's regression were conducted for publication bias. This met-analysis is registered in Prospero-CRD42024502038. In the final met-analysis report, 13 out of 1221 articles were included and presented. During screening of 6668 HIV-infected children for active TB occurrence, 834 cases were reported after ART was initiated. The pooled proportion of active TB among HIV infected children was found 12.07% (95% CI: 10.71-13.41). In subgroup analysis, the Oromia region had 15.6% (95%CI: 10.2-20.6) TB burden, followed by southern Ethiopia 12.8% (95%CI: 10.03-15.67). During meta-regression, missed isoniazid Preventive therapy (IPT) (OR: 2.28), missed contrimoxazole preventive therapy (OR: 4.26), WHO stage III&IV (OR: 2.27), and level of Hgb ≤ 10gm/dl (OR = 3.11.7) were predictors for active TB. The systematic review found a higher proportion of active TB in HIV-infected children in Ethiopia compared to estimated rates in end TB strategy. To prevent premature death during co-infection, implement effective TB screening and cases tracing strategies in each follow up is needed.