Risk of all-cause mortality associated with nonfatal AIDS and serious non-AIDS events among adults infected with HIV

Abstract

Among patients with HIV, the risk of death associated with different AIDS events has been quantified, but the risk of death associated with non-AIDS events has not been examined. We compared the risk of all-cause mortality following AIDS versus serious non-AIDS (SNA) events in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) study and the Evaluation of Subcutaneous Proleukin in a Randomized International Trial (ESPRIT). Data from 9583 HIV-infected participants, 5472 with a CD4 cell count more than 350 cells/microl enrolled in SMART and 4111 with a CD4 cell count 300 cells/microl or more enrolled in ESPRIT, were analyzed. Cumulative mortality 6 months after AIDS and SNA events (cardiovascular, renal, hepatic disease, and malignancies) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios associated with AIDS and SNA events on the risk of death overall and by treatment group within study. AIDS and SNA events occurred in 286 and 435 participants with 47 (16%) and 115 (26%) subsequent deaths, respectively. Six-month cumulative mortality was 4.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8-8.0] after experiencing an AIDS event and 13.4% (95% CI 10.5-17.0) after experiencing an SNA event. The adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality for those who experienced AIDS versus those who did not was 4.9 (95% CI 3.6-6.8). The corresponding hazard ratio for SNA was 11.4 (95% CI 9.0-14.5) (P < 0.001 for difference in hazard ratios). Findings were similar for both treatment groups in SMART and both treatment groups in ESPRIT. Among HIV-infected persons with higher CD4 cell counts, SNA events occur more frequently and are associated with a greater risk of death than AIDS events. Future research should be aimed at comparing strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with SNA events for HIV-infected persons.