Abstract
It is increasingly necessary to perform risk analysis in marine structures, to ensure system safety, as they are large and complex. In view of the shortcomings of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), a modified fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) approach is proposed that is based on fuzzy evidence reasoning (FER), and considers the risk factor rating and relative weight. The presented method is used to prioritize the risk of equipment failure modes for the floating production storage and offloading system (FPSO) oil and gas processing system. The subjective weights and objective weights of occurrence (O), severity (S), and detectability (D) have been considered comprehensively. The subjective experience of the experts and the objective information reflected by the O, S, and D ratings are all included in the weights, making the ranking results closer to reality. The results can be scientific references for decision-makers in risk identification.
Highlights
One of the mainstream methods for offshore oil and gas development is the floating production storage and offloading system (FPSO)
Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an important safety and reliability analysis tool that is widely used in a wide range of industries
Due to its difficulty in acquiring precise assessment information on failure modes, the defects in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) modes, and the difficulty in building a complete fuzzy rule base, we proposed a new FMEA using the fuzzy evidence reasoning (FER) approach and fuzzy
Summary
One of the mainstream methods for offshore oil and gas development is the floating production storage and offloading system (FPSO). In order to overcome one or more of the limitations and to improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA methods, several scholars have carried out the risk ranking of failure modes by combining fuzzy evidence theory, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) theory, grey correlation theory, Decision-Making. Considering the correlation between failure modes, Kang et al [18] introduced fuzzy set theory and decision test, and an experimental evaluation method into FMEA, and combined it with TOPSIS theory to analyze the failure modes of offshore wind turbine, to improve the credibility of the results. Kutlu and Ekmekçioğlu [7] introduced the fuzzy theory into FMEA analysis and used the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of risk factors, but ignored the objective information of risk factors themselves.
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