Risk factors of early re-bleeding and mortality in patients with ruptured gastric varices and concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Most studies of prognostic factors after a variceal hemorrhage have either excluded or only involved a few patients with bleeding from gastric variceal bleeding (GVB) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We have investigated risk factors for early re-bleeding and mortality in patients with GVB and HCC and attempted to determine the effect of HCC characteristics on portal hypertension-related re-bleeding. This was a retrospective study of data complied on 109 patients with GVB and concomitant HCC in prospectively collected databases. HCC patients were divided into those with recently developed HCC (rd-HCC; HCC diagnosed within 2 months before or after GVB) and those with previously diagnosed HCC (pd-HCC; HCC diagnosed 2 months before GVB). Predictors for 5-day portal hypertension re-bleeding, 30-day and 5-year mortality were analyzed. The cumulative 5-day re-bleeding rates in the rd-HCC group versus the pd-HCC group was 23.5 versus 10.0% (P = 0.019). rd-HCC, a high model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (>15), and active bleeding were predictors for 5-day re-bleeding. The cumulative 30-day and 5-year survival for the rd-HCC group versus the pd-HCC group were 76.0 versus 76.5% (P = 0.980) and 16.0 versus 4.7% (P = 0.099), respectively. Advanced tumor stage, high MELD score (>15), and elevated alanine transaminase were predictors of mortality. Patients with GVB and concomitant HCC are associated with poor outcomes. Recently developed HCC, a high MELD score, active bleeding, advanced tumor stage, and elevated alanine transaminase are poor prognostic predictors. Apart from pharmacological and endoscopic treatments for GVB, careful investigation of a recently developed HCC in these patients is mandatory.