Risk factors and prognosis of poor graft function after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in pediatric: a retrospective study

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IntroductionPoor graft function (PGF) represents a serious and potentially life-threatening complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT); however, its etiological risk factors and prognostic implications remain inadequately defined within pediatric populations.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted on 175 pediatric patients undergoing allo-HSCT between 30 June 2018, and 31 December 2022. Patients were stratified into PGF (n = 30) and good graft function (GGF, n = 145) groups. Multivariate logistic regression identified risk factors for PGF, while Cox proportional hazards models evaluated mortality-associated variables. Survival outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves.ResultsKey findings encompass: (1) PGF Risk Factors: Multivariable analysis identified four independent predictors of PGF: age ≥10 years at transplantation (OR = 29.27, 95%CI: 5.70–150.21, P < 0.001), HLA mismatch (OR = 4.11, 95%CI: 1.45–11.65, P = 0.008), cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (OR = 7.64, 95%CI: 2.31–25.21, P = 0.001), and BK virus (BKV) infection (OR = 12.22, 95%CI: 2.49–59.89, P = 0.002); The model’s predictive performance by ROC analysis yielded an AUC of 0.886 (95%CI: 0.83–0.94; P < 0.001). (2) Survival Analysis: the 4-year overall survival (OS) was profoundly inferior in the PGF cohort compared to the GGF cohort (49.4% ± 10.3% vs. 90.2% ± 2.5%, P < 0.001). (3) Predictors of Mortality: Cox regression identified PGF (HR = 2.39, 95%CI: 1.02–5.59, P = 0.044), acute graft-versus-host disease (grade I/II, HR = 3.43, 95%CI: 1.29–9.15, P = 0.014; grade III/IV, HR = 8.92, 95%CI: 3.19–24.96, P < 0.001), hemorrhagic cystitis (HR = 3.18, 95%CI: 1.37–7.39, P = 0.007), and severe pneumonia (HR = 4.42, 95%CI: 1.92–10.19, P < 0.001) as independent predictors of early mortality.ConclusionAge ≥10 years at transplantation, HLA mismatch, CMV infection, or BK viremia identifies a high-risk cohort of pediatric allo-HSCT recipients who require intensified monitoring for PGF, underscoring an urgent need for effective preventive and therapeutic interventions.

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Objective: To analyze the risk factors and outcomes of poor graft function (PGF) following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in children with transfusion dependent thalassemia (TDT). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 118 pediatric TDT patients who underwent allo-HSCT at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from June 30, 2018 to December 31, 2022. Based on PGF diagnostic criteria, patients were categorized into PGF and good graft function (GGF) groups. Clinical features, including pre-transplant baseline characteristics and post-transplant complications, were compared between groups. Inter-group comparisons were conducted by χ² test or Fisher exact test, as appropriate for the data type and distribution. Multivariate Logistic regression identified PGF risk factors, and model performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method with Log-Rank testing. Results: Among 118 patients, there were 69 males (58.5%) and 49 females (41.5%). Fifteen cases (12.7%) developed PGF while 103 cases (87.3%) achieved GGF. Compared to the GGF group, the PGF group had significantly higher rates of age ≥10 years at transplant, interval from diagnosis to transplant ≥6.7 years, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch, ABO mismatch, post-transplant BK virus infection, and hemorrhagic cystitis (all P<0.05). Multivariate analysis identified independent risk factors for PGF: age ≥10 years (OR=27.20, 95%CI 2.11-350.91), diagnosis-to-transplant interval ≥6.7 years (OR=23.23, 95%CI 1.39-388.23), post-transplant cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (OR=57.83, 95%CI 3.01-1 111.71), post-transplant and BK virus infection (OR=67.73, 95%CI 2.56-1 794.52). The ROC curve showed an area under curve of 0.92 (95%CI 0.86-0.97, P<0.001). The 4-year overall survival rate was significantly lower in the PGF group compared to the GGF group ((53.3±12.9)%vs.(90.2±2.9)%,χ2=16.49,P<0.001). Conclusions: Risk factors for PGF in TDT children after allo-HSCT include age ≥10 years at transplantation, time from diagnosis to transplantation ≥6.7 years, post-transplant CMV infection and post-transplant BK virus infection. The PGF patients after allo-HSCT exhibit significantly poorer overall survival compared to those with GGF.

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