Risk factor-based models to predict severe retinopathy of prematurity in preterm Thai infants.

Abstract

To develop prediction models for severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) based on risk factors in preterm Thai infants to reduce unnecessary eye examinations in low-risk infants. This retrospective cohort study included preterm infants screened for ROP in a tertiary hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, between September 2009 and December 2020. A predictive score model and a risk factor-based algorithm were developed based on the risk factors identified by a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Validity scores, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were reported. The mean gestational age and birth weight (standard deviation) of 845 enrolled infants were 30.3 (2.6) weeks and 1264.9 (398.1) g, respectively. The prevalence of ROP was 26.2%. Independent risk factors across models included gestational age, birth weight, no antenatal steroid use, postnatal steroid use, duration of oxygen supplementation, and weight gain during the first 4 weeks of life. The predictive score had a sensitivity (95% CI) of 92.2% (83.0, 96.6), negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.2% (98.1, 99.6), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) of 0.1. The risk factor-based algorithm revealed a sensitivity of 100% (94, 100), NPV of 100% (99, 100), and NLR of 0. Similar validity was observed when "any oxygen supplementation" replaced "duration of oxygen supplementation." Predictive score, unmodified, and modified algorithms reduced eye examinations by 71%, 43%, and 16%, respectively. Our risk factor-based algorithm offered an efficient approach to reducing unnecessary eye examinations while maintaining the safety of infants at risk of severe ROP. Prospective validation of the model is required.