Risk-Cost Decision Framework for Aquifer Remediation Design

Abstract

The writers present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at ground-water contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. It is specifically designed for broad, “big picture” analyses, such as in the preliminary stages of remedial design. The presented framework is used to (1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones; (2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective; and (3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost analysis, and regional sensitivity analysis (RSA). The framework is demonstrated using a hypothetical contamination problem where radionuclide strontium ( 90 Sr) is leaching from a trench into the ground water. Three remediation design alternatives are considered: monitoring only, isolating the source trench, and installing a plume containment and treatment system. Uncertainty in remediation design performance is due to uncertainty in 13 flow and transport parameters including hydraulic conductivity and source strength. The methodology can be applied to a variety of remediation problems.