Abstract
An approach to assessing the riskiness of a project in conditions of uncertainty is considered, which makes it possible to increase the efficiency of management decisions in conditions of uncertainty. To solve this problem, a statistical method for assessing expected events was considered. To assess the effectiveness of a project when making a management decision, there is no indicator that takes into account uncertainty. For this, it is proposed to introduce an indicator - mathematical uncertainty, which will be based on the probability distribution of the risk factors of the investment project. At the initial stage, the risk factors of the investment project were identified and formed: production, material, personnel, financial, marketing, government regulation. At the second stage, using the method of classical determination of the probability of an event, the number of possible design events is binary determined. Next, the factorial NPV was calculated. Having received the factorial NPV f, it is correlated with the mathematically expected NPV. The resulting ratio will mean mathematical uncertainty. Interpretation of the obtained result means that the existing risk factors of the project under conditions of uncertainty can lead to both positive and negative consequences.
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