Abstract
Offshore micro integrated energy systems are the basis of offshore oil and gas engineering. In order to evaluate its operational risks and ensure the safe development of marine resources, a risk assessment scheme for offshore micro integrated energy systems based on a risk fluid mosaic model is proposed. Aiming at the current situation that the traditional equipment material-energy conversion model has a large amount of modeling and does not fully reflect the system structure, a material-energy conversion model based on unified modeling is constructed, and a risk function is introduced to analyze the material-energy of the power equipment under risk conversion; At the same time, a risk fluid mosaic model based on the system structure and material-energy carrier is constructed to describe the dynamic behavior of risk from the material-energy flow; Aiming at the fact that the traditional risk grading model cannot reflect the overall risk of the system when multiple risks are involved, a multi-weighted system risk grading model is proposed to describe the overall risk situation of the system under multiple risks. The validity and rationality of the model and method proposed in this paper is verified by using an offshore oil and gas platform in the Bohai Sea as a simulation example.
Highlights
Offshore oil and gas engineering is of great significance to achieve sustainable energy development [1]
This paper constructs a risk output model based on risk impact factors for offshore platform output equipment using a unified modeling method
This model improves the problem of traditional output equipment modeling complex and difficult to reflect the relevance of the system structure, and describes the device material-energy conversion relationship of equipment at risk
Summary
Offshore oil and gas engineering is of great significance to achieve sustainable energy development [1]. Offshore micro integrated energy system (OMIES) is an important way for offshore oil and gas development [2], [3] It couples multiple energy and material flows, and faces various risks due to the complex marine environmental factors. THE REAL-TIME OUTAGE PROBABILITY MODEL OF EQUIPMENTS OMIES usually consists of living, energy supply and production process systems, which are a variety of energy and material flow coupled systems. OMIES is powered by natural gas or diesel, but fluctuations in material flow will cause uncertainty in energy supply, and fluctuations in energy supply such as electricity and heat will directly affect the stable operation of platform production and process systems. Where λ is the comprehensive equipment outage rate; λold is the equipment aging failure rate; λave is the average equipment failure rate; Z is the time period when the device is in normal weather; S is the time period when the device is in severe weather; R is the failure rate of the device under severe weather; P is the time outage probability of the device in real-time; F (ξ, ξmnoarx , ξmnoinr , ξmax , ξmin) is the effect function of the equipment real-time operating parameters on the equipment outage probability; ξ is the relevant parameters of the equipment operation; ξmnoarx is the maximum parameter value for the normal operation of the device; ξmnoinr is the minimum parameter value for the normal operation of the device; ξmax is the maximum parameter value of the equipment between the critical conditions of operation and shutdown; ξmin is the minimum parameter value of the equipment between the critical conditions of operation and shutdown
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