Abstract
In study of a series of damages to water distribution systems caused by urban land subsidence, risk assessment modeling is necessary for risk management especially in Mega-cities. First of all, the Catastrophe Theory was employed to analyze the Catastrophe mechanism, and a function catastrophe simulation model was established accordingly to get the vulnerability index of water distribution system. Secondly, risk entropy model was used to analyze the risk of pipe network suffering the land subsidence with the disorder and uncertainty features according to risk theory. Finally, to get the risk index the water distribution system of Guangzhou city was taken to the risk assessment model utilizing the level of land subsidence identified by the dimensional analytical method. The results showed that the risk of land subsidence under the city water distribution system security upgrade is feasible to provide a risk assessment of the strategic decision-making model.
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