Abstract
Based on the theory of risk, a new model is proposed for cascading failure in power system. According to fault factor of power line itself and the impact of real-time power flow, the branch outage probability model is established, and then the probability of cascading failure can be calculated. The severity function of cascading failure is defined by the analysis of fault consequences including the decrease of load margin, bus voltage offset and power line overload. The use of the set of danger lines which is judged by the amount of active power increase and load margin of power line can speed the search of fault mode. The simulation and analysis of IEEE 39-node proves the effectiveness of the method.
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