Risk Analysis of Regulatory Options for the Transport of Dangerous Commodities by Rail

Abstract

A Canadian Transport Commission hearing was held to consider the recommendations of an inquiry into the train derailment in Mississauga, Ontario, from which nearly a quarter of a million people were evacuated because of the threat posed by a release of chlorine gas. A risk analysis study showed that the inquiry's principal recommendation would have resulted in an almost imperceptible improvement in safety at a cost that some estimates put at more than one billion dollars. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that the regulatory option favored by the railways, while superficially attractive, actually would have increased the risks of dangerous commodity spills. The commission rejected both proposals, in part because of the findings of the study.