Abstract
Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.
Highlights
Risk analysis of gravity dam anti-sliding instability involves factors of complicated uncertainty
Considering independent random factors and fuzzy factors in the model, the random fuzzy response of the random fuzzy limit state function of gravity dam is gained through mixed algorithm (Baudrit et al 2006), which is based on Monte Carlo simulation (Altarejos-García et al 2012): 1. Generate a random number in [0, 1] to every random variable
Based on Monte Carlo simulation, a mixed algorithm is combined with post-processing of credibility risk analysis mode
Summary
Risk analysis of gravity dam anti-sliding instability involves factors of complicated uncertainty. Fuzziness and randomness of influence factors have no essential difference in stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Combining present analysis model with Monte Carlo simulation, calculation method and procedure are proposed to analyze the risk of anti-sliding stability of gravity dam.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
