Abstract

Objective: This paper assesses whether the future rise in educational levels of theelderly may not only increase life expectancy (LE) but also at the same timecontribute to a reduction in life expectancy with disability (LED).Methods: For each educational level, LE and LED were estimated from multi-statelife tables with a disabled and non-disabled state. Basic transition rates wereestimated from regression analysis of data of a Dutch longitudinal study. The resultsper educational level were aggregated to the total population for the years 1995,2005 and 2015.Results: In 1995, men in the highest educational level had a 0.9 years longerLE and a 5.4 years shorter LED than men in the lowest level. Differences amongwomen were larger (2.0 and 8.3 years). Due to rising educational levels between1995 and 2015, LE for the total male population would increase by 0.2 years whileLED would decrease by 0.5 years. A larger effect was observed for women(0.2 and 1.5 years).Conclusion: Rising educational levels of the elderly are likely to contribute to acompression of morbidity over the next decades, especially among women.

Highlights

  • Since about 1940, each new generation enjoyed better access to secondary and tertiary education, and achieved higher educational levels than any previous generation

  • This association is likely to reflect a causal effect of education on mortality that is mediated via diverse factors, including the better living conditions and healthier life styles of those who have a higher education (Elstad 2000; Stronks 1997; Valkonen 1987)

  • The experience of former generations showed that old age mortality is highly ‘plastic’ (Vaupel 1997) and that even at ages up to 80 years, the higher educated have better chances to survive 5 or 10 years more (Amaducci et al 1998; Marmot and Shipley 1996; Martelin, Koskinen and Valkonen 1998)

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Summary

Introduction

Since about 1940, each new generation enjoyed better access to secondary and tertiary education, and achieved higher educational levels than any previous generation. Among generations born after 1940, educational levels are strongly associated with mortality, with the lowest death rates observed for those with tertiary education (Kunst 1997; Mackenbach et al 1999). This association is likely to reflect a causal effect of education on mortality that is mediated via diverse factors, including the better living conditions and healthier life styles of those who have a higher education (Elstad 2000; Stronks 1997; Valkonen 1987). The experience of former generations showed that old age mortality is highly ‘plastic’ (Vaupel 1997) and that even at ages up to 80 years, the higher educated have better chances to survive 5 or 10 years more (Amaducci et al 1998; Marmot and Shipley 1996; Martelin, Koskinen and Valkonen 1998)

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