Rice supply flows and their determinants in China

Abstract

While one has yet to be built in China, a rice supply flow network would provide essential information for stabilizing and optimizing food distribution and ensuring food security. Moreover, it is unclear how socioeconomic and natural environmental factors affect the rice supply flow. In this study, 35,768 random samples from the rice sales market were collected to build the rice flow network of China. The rice supply patterns at a regional and provincial level were revealed by the rice flow network. At the regional level, Northeast, Central, and East China are the main rice source areas, supplying almost all of China. At the provincial level, economically developed megacities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, and provinces with low temperatures like Tibet and Qinghai, rely heavily on imported rice. Determinant analysis shows that the rice supply patterns are mainly attributable to the cultivated area, primary industry employees, the permanent population, and tertiary industry proportion. These factors explain 75%, 59%, 48%, and 31%, respectively, of the rice supply spatial patterns. Furthermore, the interactions of cultivated area and temperature, cultivated area and primary industry proportion, and cultivated area and precipitation can explain 94%, 91%, and 89%, respectively, of the rice supply patterns. These findings reveal China's rice supply patterns and their determinants in recent years, providing essential information for optimizing the layout of rice production and ensuring food security in the future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development.