Revisiting the Link Between Population Recovery and Human‐Wildlife Conflicts: Insights From Brown Bear Compensation Claims in Greece

Simple SummaryThe mechanisms of coexistence between large carnivores are critical for conservation and the management of endangered species. In northeastern China, the distributions of Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and brown bears (Ursus arctos) overlap widely. To better understand the mechanisms of coexistence among sympatric Asiatic black bears and brown bears, we assessed their spatial–temporal patterns using camera trapping data in Taipinggou National Nature Reserve, Heilongjiang Province, China. We found evidence for spatial and temporal divergences among the two Ursidae species. Asiatic black bears avoided brown bears by occupying higher elevations and being more diurnal where they coexisted. This study demonstrated how two bear species coexist through spatial and temporal niche separation, which will facilitate future studies on the mechanisms determining the coexistence of species and provide new basic data for animal conservation.Studying the spatial and temporal interactions between sympatric animal species is essential for understanding the mechanisms of interspecific coexistence. Both Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and brown bears (Ursus arctos) inhabit northeastern China, but their spatial–temporal patterns and the mechanism of coexistence were unclear until now. Camera traps were set in Heilongjiang Taipinggou National Nature Reserve (TPGNR) from January 2017 to December 2017 to collect photos of the two sympatric bear species. The Pianka index, kernel density estimation, and the coefficient of overlap were used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the two sympatric species. Our findings indicated that the spatial overlap between Asiatic black bears and brown bears was low, as Asiatic black bears occupied higher elevations than brown bears. The two species’ temporal activity patterns were similar at sites where only one species existed, yet they were different at the co–occurrence sites. Asiatic black bears and brown bears are competitors in this area, but they can coexist by changing their daily activity patterns. Compared to brown bears, Asiatic black bears behaved more diurnally. Our study revealed distinct spatial and temporal differentiation within the two species in TPGNR, which can reduce interspecific competition and facilitate coexistence between them.

Understanding the mechanisms and patterns involved in population recoveries is challenging and important in shaping conservation strategies. We used a recovering rear-edge population of brown bears at their southernmost European range in Greece as a case study (2007-2010) to explore the recovery genetics at a species' distribution edge. We used 17 microsatellite and a mitochondrial markers to evaluate genetic structure, estimate effective population size and genetic diversity, and infer gene flow between the identified subpopulations. To understand the larger picture, we also compared the observed genetic diversity of each subpopulation with other brown bear populations in the region. The results indicate that the levels of genetic diversity for bears in western Greece are the lowest recorded in southeastern Europe, but still higher than those of other genetically depauperate bear populations. Apart from a complete separation of bear populations in eastern and western Greece, our results also indicate a considerable genetic sub-structuring in the West. As bear populations in Greece are now recovering, this structure is dissolving through a "recovery cascade" of asymmetric gene flow from South to North between neighboring subpopulations, mediated mainly by males. Our study outlines the importance of small, persisting populations, which can act as "stepping stones" that enable a rapid population expansion and recovery. This in turn makes their importance much greater than their numeric or genetic contribution to a species as a whole.

Spatial localization and distribution of the TMS-related ‘hotspot’ of the tibialis anterior muscle representation in the healthy and post-stroke motor cortex

AimThe recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos).LocationEurope, west of 64° longitude.MethodsWe fitted multi‐temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24‐year period (1992–2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe.ResultsBetween 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North‐West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation.Main conclusionsRecent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores’ co‐existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy.

Increasing attention is being devoted to taking landscape information into account in genetic studies. Among landscape variables, space is often considered as one of the most important. To reveal spatial patterns, a statistical method should be spatially explicit, that is, it should directly take spatial information into account as a component of the adjusted model or of the optimized criterion. In this paper we propose a new spatially explicit multivariate method, spatial principal component analysis (sPCA), to investigate the spatial pattern of genetic variability using allelic frequency data of individuals or populations. This analysis does not require data to meet Hardy-Weinberg expectations or linkage equilibrium to exist between loci. The sPCA yields scores summarizing both the genetic variability and the spatial structure among individuals (or populations). Global structures (patches, clines and intermediates) are disentangled from local ones (strong genetic differences between neighbors) and from random noise. Two statistical tests are proposed to detect the existence of both types of patterns. As an illustration, the results of principal component analysis (PCA) and sPCA are compared using simulated datasets and real georeferenced microsatellite data of Scandinavian brown bear individuals (Ursus arctos). sPCA performed better than PCA to reveal spatial genetic patterns. The proposed methodology is implemented in the adegenet package of the free software R.

Fewer workers' compensation claims and lower claim costs if employers with high injury rates achieved the rates of their safer peers

Tropical lowland rain forest (TLRF) biodiversity is under threat from anthropogenic factors including deforestation which creates forest fragments of different sizes that can further undergo various internal patterns of logging. Such interventions can modify previous equilibrium abundance and spatial distribution patterns of offspring recruitment and/or pollen dispersal. Little is known about how these aspects of deforestation and fragmentation might synergistically affect TLRF tree recovery demographics and population genetics in newly formed forest fragments. To investigate these TLRF anthropogenic disturbance processes we used the computer program NEWGARDEN (NG), which models spatially-explicit, individual-based plant populations, to simulate 10% deforestation in six different spatial logging patterns for the plant functional type of a long-lived TLRF canopy tree species. Further, each logging pattern was analyzed under nine varying patterns of offspring versus pollen dispersal distances that could have arisen post-fragmentation. Results indicated that gene dispersal condition (especially via offspring) had a greater effect on population growth and genetic diversity retention (explaining 98.5% and 88.8% of the variance respectively) than spatial logging pattern (0.2% and 4.7% respectively), with ‘Near’ distance dispersal maximizing population growth and genetic diversity relative to distant dispersal. Within logged regions of the fragment, deforestation patterns closer to fragment borders more often exhibited lower population recovery rates and founding genetic diversity retention relative to more centrally located logging. These results suggest newly isolated fragments have populations that are more sensitive to the way in which their offspring and pollen dispersers are affected than the spatial pattern in which subsequent logging occurs, and that large variation in the recovery rates of different TLRF tree species attributable to altered gene dispersal regimens will be a likely outcome of fragmentation. Conservation implications include possible manual interventions (manual manipulations of offspring dispersers and/or pollinators) in forest fragments to increase population recovery and genetic diversity retention.

The daily activity patterns of animals are modulated by external factors such as habitat selection, temporal niche selection, prey availability and predation risk. Furthermore, different species show a variety of responses to human disturbance; therefore, to understand the effects of human activities on wildlife, it is crucial to consider the disturbance characteristics (e.g. type, frequency, timing and location of human activity). Our objective was to evaluate whether vehicles on forest roads altered the daily temporal activity patterns of three apex predators; Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), the grey wolf (Canis lupus) and brown bear (Ursus arctos), using an extensive camera trap data set collected across a gradient of forest roads and wildlife trails in the Croatian part of the Dinaric mountains. We expected a low temporal overlap between humans and apex predators but predicted this even lower at sites where vehicles are present. Consistent with our expectations, the general overlap in temporal activity of all three apex predators and humans was low, the former being primarily active at night/dawn/dusk hours and the latter during daylight hours. In contrast, our results showed similarity in the temporal activity of all three predators on wildlife trails and forest roads where human activity was more frequent and diverse.

Conservation of biodiversity is rapidly changing as a result of increased impact of human activity on the natural world. At the beginning of a new epoch - the Anthropocene - the cumulative effect of population growth and natural resource consumption has left no corner of the planet unaffected by humans. Impacts can be observed on a global scale, such as climate change, ocean acidification, and nitrification and also on a local scale including habitat destruction, community composition, and pollution. These impacts are restructuring ecosystems into novel systems that require creative approaches to conserve ecosystem processes and maintain biodiversity. Large mammalian carnivores represent a clade of organisms that has a varied ability to survive in human dominated landscapes. For my dissertation, I examined community structure, movement, and abundance of brown bears (Ursus arctos arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and Caucasian lynx (Lynx lynx dinniki) in a human dominated landscape in eastern Turkey. From 2013-2016, I surveyed for all medium-large mammal species using remote cameras deployed in a fragmented forest patch near Sarikamis, Turkey. Occupancy estimates reveal a mammal community dominated by large carnivores, humans and livestock, and lacking a natural prey base. During 2011-2016, I collared 28 bears, 11 wolves and 2 lynx and used species-specific seasonal resource selection functions to assess habitat selection patterns. I found that all three species use of habitat varies between seasons and is strongly linked to elevation and slope. By identifying critical habitat for all three species, I have prioritized a specific area for conservation efforts in the future. To estimate the minimum population size of brown bears in my main study area, during 2013-2015, I used scat detection dogs to collect 1,520 bear scat samples for genetic analysis, and using 8 polymorphic microsatellite loci, I identified 27 unique multilocus genotypes and expected heterozygosity of 0.70 as a proxy of genetic diversity. I also conducted opinion surveys in 2014 and combined results with surveys conducted 2006 and 2010 to understand the perspective of the local community about large carnivores. Lastly, I propose a prioritized list of future conservation plans for large carnivore conservation in the human-dominated landscape of Sarikamis Forest, eastern Anatolia.

Functional Outcome of Arthroscopic Extensor Carpi Radialis Brevis Tendon Release in Chronic Lateral Epicondylitis

In recent decades, the frequency of Medical Only (MO) and Lost Time (LT) workers' compensation claims has decreased, while average severity (medical and indemnity costs) has increased. The aim of this study was to compare claim frequency, mix, and severity (cost) over two periods using a claim cohort follow-up method. Sixty-two thousand five hundred thirty-three claims during two periods (1999 to 2002 and 2003 to 2006) were followed seven years postinjury. Descriptive analysis and significant testing methods were used to compare claim frequency and costs. The number of claims per $1 M of premium decreased 50.4% for MO claims and 35.6% for LT claims, consequently increasing the LT claim proportion. The average cost of LT claims did not increase. The severity increase is attributable to the proportional change in LT and MO claims. While the number of LT claims decreased, the inflation-adjusted average cost of LT claims did not increase.

Very few studies have investigated the variations in occupational injuries throughout the day. The main objective of this study was to examine hourly trends in reported claims of occupational injuries and illnesses and their associated cost, with special emphasis on low-back disorders (LBDs) and cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs). The data were obtained from the records of a major insurance carrier. The results showed that the number of claims per hour exhibited a Gaussian-like distribution with highest reported numbers occurring between 07:00 and 11:00 h. There was an observed increase in LBD claims during the morning hours when compared to the afternoon. In addition, there was a pronounced increase in the number of CTD claims at 09:00 h indicating a possible carry-over effect from nocturnal and early morning pain commonly experienced in CTD sufferers. More revealing, normalized claims (per number of people working at a given hour) showed a dramatic increase during the evening and early morning hours when compared to normal working hours. For both the overall and LBD claims, the rates during the night and early morning periods were up to three times higher than during the typical day-time working hours. However, this trend was not as pronounced for the CTD claims. Most of the hourly cost trends were similar to those observed for the claims trends. However, cost information may reveal further insights about the severity of injuries, especially for CTDs. The findings of the study indicate that special attention should be paid to activities and work processes performed during night and early morning hours of the day. It should be noted that this study focused on the 'recording' of time of injury which may or may not correspond to the ‘true’ time of occurrence of an injury or a symptom. Further studies are needed to assess the agreement between the recorded and the actual time of occurrence of an incident, and to better understand the underlying reasons behind the variation in the time of injuries.

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Human-wildlife coexistence is important for a sustainable relationship between humans and the natural environment. However, human activities often act as a disturbance to wild animals, which may show behavioural shifts indicating human avoidance. For large carnivores, which are prone to conflict with many human interests, coexistence with humans can be particularly challenging. We used long-term camera trap data to evaluate seasonal and diel variations in activity of two large carnivores, the brown bear (Ursus arctos) and the grey wolf (Canis lupus), as well as humans in the Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. Brown bears were less active in winter than in summer; the opposite was observed for wolves, whereas there was limited seasonal variation in human activity. On a diel scale, both bears and wolves were mostly crepuscular during summer and had less distinct, but generally more nocturnal activity during winter. Humans were strictly diurnal during both seasons. We suggest that the diel activity of bears and wolves was partially caused by human avoidance, but that seasonal variations in both overall and diel activity were mainly caused by ecological and physiological factors. While we suggest that the observed similarity in diel activity of bears and wolves did not have caused strong competition between these two species, it may have influenced interactions with other predators and prey. Since such interactions are likely to be context dependent, we urge for further studies evaluating how humans influence the behaviour of large carnivores across different spatio-temporal scales.

Spatially explicit carrying capacity estimates to inform species specific recovery objectives: Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) recovery in the North Cascades