REVIEWING THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS BETWEEN 1988 AND 1997

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports.Design/methodology/approachBased on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports, this study empirically examines the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports based on China’s customs export data from 2011 to 2016.FindingsThe relevant findings are threefold. (1) The digital economy significantly improves the binary margin of agricultural exports, and its effect on the intensive margin is stronger than that on the expansive margin. After the expansive margin is subdivided, the effects on the three sub-variables of the expansive margin are in the following order: old products exported to new markets > new products exported to old markets > new products exported to new markets. (2) The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy has a stronger role in promoting the binary margin of exports for enterprises in the eastern region, high-income countries as the destination of exports and state-owned enterprises. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that the digital economy promotes the binary margin of agricultural exports by reducing trade costs and intensifying market competition.Originality/valueFirst, in terms of research perspective, although there are some studies on the impact of the digital economy on export trade in existing literature, the research objects mainly focus on manufacturing enterprises. In fact, agricultural trade is susceptible to natural conditions and seasonal factors, and countries may impose more SPS measures and TBT measures on agricultural trade due to risk considerations. The relationship between the digital economy and agricultural trade also has its own characteristics, but there are few research studies in this area. At present, only Liu and Gao (2022), based on the data of total imports and exports of different agricultural products from 2004 to 2018, have established a vector auto-regressive model to empirically analyse the heterogeneous dynamic impact of the digital economy on the trade volume of agricultural products. In addition, Ma and Guo (2023) conducted an empirical test on the total effect, regional heterogeneity and threshold effect of the digital economy on agricultural export trade based on China’s provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Therefore, under the new circumstances of continuous integration of digital technology and agriculture, this study interprets the impact effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural exports from the perspective of the digital economy, providing new research perspectives and approaches for promoting the growth of agricultural exports. Second, in terms of theoretical analysis, the above studies have not been fully analysed in terms of the specific mechanism of the impact of the digital economy on agricultural exports. Based on the positive and negative characteristics of agricultural trade, this study introduces two kinds of roles into the theoretical analysis framework to comprehensively determine the trade impact effect of the digital economy. Third, in terms of research design, this study empirically examines the impact of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural products, passing a series of robustness tests and investigating the mediating roles of trade cost and market competition effects, producing an empirical basis for China to leverage the digital economy to promote the binary margin of agricultural exports.

The global credit crunch was believed to have no direct effect on the Asian financial sector except for Hong Kong SAR, Japan, and Singapore where financial sectors are highly linked to the United States and the United Kingdom. However, indirect effects may work through a decline in the Asian export incomes. Export rebalancing policy was proposed to offset the external risk. Whether export diversification succeeded in mitigating effects of the global economic crash on the Asian economies has not yet been evaluated. This paper finds that ASEAN+3 economic cooperation has also enhanced regional trade in terms of the higher export growth, and higher trade correlations along with capital market development. Nevertheless, there is still little room for an official Regional Free Trade Agreement (if available) to increase regional trade integration. The analyses find that the current global financial crisis's negative impacts obviously spread to and across Asia and the magnitude of its effects is also greater than the magnitude of Asian financial crisis' effect. The most affected Asian country is Taiwan whose export products and destinations are most concentrated while the least affected Asian country is Indonesia whose export products and destinations are relatively less concentrated. Indonesia's export diversification and low trade dependence on the United States and other Asian countries cause the delay of crisis effects and make negative effects of the global financial crisis on its export growth, economic growth and trade balance position relatively smaller. On the other hand, even though China's export products are most diversified, China becomes more vulnerable to external shocks when its exports are more integrated into regional trade. Thus, exports rebalancing policy will be effective if both export products and export destinations are diversified, and exports are not highly integrated into regional trade.

In recent years, China's agricultural product export trade has achieved rapid growth with the help of cross-border e-commerce platforms, which has played a positive role in China's agricultural and economic development. Based on the construction of China's cross-border e-commerce development index through the Entropy method, this paper uses 2008-2019 agricultural product import and export big data to establish a model, and then analyzes the relationship between cross-border e-commerce and China's agricultural product export trade. The results show that cross-border e-commerce has indeed promoted the export trade of agricultural products. However, the agricultural product logistics system is not sound enough, and the quality of agricultural products needs to be improved, which restricts the development of China's agricultural export. Based on the analysis, this article believes that the problem can be solved in terms of improving logistics capabilities, improving quality, and increasing talent training.

The paper examined the intensive and extensive margin of India’s agricultural exports and identified the determinants of the trade margins using a gravity trade model. Panel data on India’s bilateral agricultural trade with 20 major partner countries for thirty years from 1991 to 2020 is constructed under the HS-6-digit classification of 600 agricultural products for the analysis. The intensive and extensive margins of India’s agricultural exports are calculated using the Hummels and Klenow method. The determinants of extensive and intensive margins of India’s agricultural trade are identified based on the gravity model of trade framework using estimation methods of Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML). The results showed that the extensive margins are more dominant than the intensive margins over the thirty year period. The gravity model revealed that variables such as relative economic magnitude, relative economic freedom, distance, relative agriculture value added, relative crop production, relative purchasing power, trade agreements, and common language significantly influence the extensive and intensive margins of India’s agricultural exports. The results imply that for sustained agricultural export growth, India should pursue policies for identifying new export destinations and deepen existing products by taking initiatives to strengthen the determinants identified in the study.

Purpose – This paper analyzes the relationship between trade facilitation and agricultural products exports and estimates the effects of trade facilitation in importing countries on Chinese agricultural products exports, which is of great significance for promoting agricultural trade between China,Japan and Korea and the governments of the three countries to formulate targeted trade facilitation policies. Design/methodology – Based on Wilson (2003) theoretical framework, this paper sets up its own trade facilitation level measurement system by involving four primary indicators and fifteen secondary indicators to evaluate the trade facilitation levels of Japan and Korea from 2011 to 2018 respectively. The paper selected the data on China s agricultural exports at the HS4 level from 2011-2018 and used a fixed-effects model to estimate the effect of changes in trade facilitation levels in trading partner countries on China s agricultural trade. Findings – Our main findings can be summarized as follows: the level of trade facilitation in importing countries has a significantly positive effect on China’s agricultural exports. The higher the level of trade facilitation in trading partner countries, the more Chinese agricultural exports trade, i.e. for every 1 percentage point increase in the level of trade facilitation, the volume of exports will increase by 2.299%.The sub-sample test shows that China s main agricultural products exported to Japan and Korea, such as aquatic products, vegetables, fruits and other perishable fresh products, are particularly significantly affected by the level of trade facilitation. Originality/value – First, from the innovation of the research perspective, which is different from the analysis of the existing paper on the overall trade facilitation of all traded commodities. This article is based on the close trade relations between China, Japan and Korea, and the particularity of agricultural products, from the perspective of China’s agricultural exports to Japan and Korea, discuss the impact of importing countries—Japan and Korea’s trade facilitation levels on China’s agricultural exports;Secondly, in this paper, the hierarchical data of the HS4 quartile is used to avoid the information loss of the industry, and to analyse the impact of the importing country’s trade facilitation level on the export of different types of agricultural products more scientifically.

Purpose - This study examines the structure of agricultural export sophistication, export efficiency, and the potential of South Korea’s agricultural products for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries. Design/Methodology – This study evaluates the agricultural export sophistication of RCEP countries and investigate export sophistication’s effects on the efficiency and potential of South Korea’s agricultural exports to RCEP countries. To this end, we construct a stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM) based on panel data of agricultural product trade and other factors that impact agricultural imports and exports between South Korea and 36 countries from 2001 to 2020. Using this “one-step method” trade inefficiency model, we evaluate the impact of export sophistication on export efficiency and potential and calculate trade efficiency and potential. Findings – The results reveal a growing trend in the structure of global and RCEP countries’ agricultural export sophistication where the export sophistication of the target countries positively impacts Korea’s agricultural exports to those nations. In addition, RCEP member countries accounted for 50% of the top ten countries in the 2020 trade efficiency ranking, and the average trade efficiency of RCEP member countries show an upward trend. Originality/value - South Korea is geographically close to most RCEP countries, which facilitates agricultural trade. Moreover, there are significant differences in climate conditions and resource endowments between South Korea and most RCEP countries, providing opportunities for expanding agricultural trade with these nations. This study contributes to the extant literature by further exploring the trade efficiency and potential of Korea’s agricultural exports to RCEP countries by considering export sophistication as an important potential factor affecting the competitiveness of Korea’s agricultural exports and analyzing the relationship between the structure of export sophistication and the trade efficiency of Korea’s agricultural product exports to RCEP members.

The issue of export diversification has been receiving attention among scholars and policymakers. However, African countries face critical challenges in improving domestic capacity to meet production and quality standards required in the foreign markets.Premised on this, this study explores how standards affect agriculture and textile products exported to the EU market, by the two biggest economies in SSA between 1995 and 2004. Employing the Hirschman concentration index as a measure of diversification in the context of a modified poisson model of gravity trade theory, findings show that standards and harmonized standards are of no significant effect on South African agricultural export diversification while in Nigeria, standards have significant effect on agricultural export diversification but have no effect on textiles. Moreover, harmonized standards show positive effect on agricultural export concentration but have no effect on textile exports in South Africa. However, harmonized standards plays no role in the diversification of Nigerian agricultural and textile export varieties. The study therefore recommends that producers of agricultural products in South Africa should focus on single, country specific standards while producers of agricultural products in Nigeria should adopt harmonized standards to promote bilateral trade and develop quality products to improve competition in the EU markets.

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to assess and provide an overview of the magnitude of current agricultural trade patterns between South Africa and the five leading regional economic communities (REC's) in Africa. This paper also seeks to examine some of the constraints limiting greater intra-African agricultural trade. This is done in order to better understand the role South Africa currently plays and could potentially play in promoting intra-Africa trade. Design/Methodology/Approach: Trade flows between South Africa and the leading REC's are outlined and explained. Trade data and tariff data is sourced from available databases. Non-tariff barriers and other impediments to greater intra-African trade are examined with reference to available literature and discussions the authors have had with trade experts and policy makers.Findings: South Africa is the most active country in intra-Africa agricultural trade. However, it is a relationship defined predominantly on exports to Africa with a low level of imports. South Africa exports a diverse range of value added products whilst imports remain concentrated in commodities. Significant imbalances in agricultural trade between South Africa and the respective REC's continue to persist. Regional trade arrangements have fostered greater trade but significant obstacles to greater trade remain.Implications: African countries that do not invest in infrastructure and create a trade-enabling environment and diversify their production, limit their potential to the supply of one or two commodities thereby perpetuating the trend of huge trade imbalances in favour of South Africa.Originality/Value: This work provides a platform for assessing trade relationships and examining impediments to greater trade. It is also relevant in guiding future research on priority markets in Africa as export destinations and import suppliers in light of increasing regional integration initiatives and governments commitment to African development.

The impact of exchange rates is a significant concern affecting trade in the SADC region. This study’s purpose is to assess the threshold effects of exchange rates on agricultural exports from SA to SADC from 2010 to 2022. A panel threshold estimation technique is applied to assess the exchange rates effects in different regimes that can be below or above the threshold value. This can reveal non-linear relationships that are often overlooked in traditional linear models. In this analysis, exchange rates are disaggregated into appreciation and depreciation, as it is critical to determine how these changes affect agricultural exports, which has not been achieved in previous studies. The findings of this study confirm the existence of a non-linear relationship between several key variables (depreciation, South Africa’s GDP, the GDP of the SADC, and South Africa’s population and agricultural exports). This contributes new insights to the existing literature on the SADC economies. The policymakers could implement an exchange rate stabilisation mechanism and promote the diversification of both market destinations and agricultural export products. The SADC economies could consider adopting flexible exchange rate regimes that respond to market forces, while taking into account external shocks and economic indicators to mitigate the effects of depreciation shocks. Furthermore, the findings from this study can aid policymakers in formulating effective strategies for managing exchange rates fluctuations and promoting agricultural export growth. The findings show that different segments of agricultural exports can inform targeted interventions aimed at supporting exporters, and relevant industries within the SADC region. These results can aid policymakers to develop strategies to support sustainable agricultural practises, and ensure that the sector can meet the growing demands of a larger population.

Geographical indication (GI) represents the specific good quality and reputation of the regional characteristics of agricultural products, which is a positive approach for stabilizing the export of agricultural products under China's new “Dual Circulation” pattern. This study used the propensity score matching–double difference (PSM–DID) method empirically testing the effect and mechanism of the mutual recognition of GIs between China and the EU on China's agricultural product export from 2000 to 2016 based on theoretical analysis of the effect mechanism of GI on agricultural product exports. The results show that: (1) The mutual recognition of GIs significantly increased the binary margin of China's agricultural exports, and the effect on the intensive margin was stronger than that on the extensive margin, and the effects on the three subvariables of the extensive margin are in the following order: old products exported to new markets > new products exported to old markets > new products exported to new markets; (2) The heterogeneity analysis shows that the mutual recognition of GIs contributes more to state‐owned enterprises, enterprises in the eastern region and to export destinations in EU countries; (3) The mechanism analysis shows that domestic demand–driven, quality upgrading and signal transmission are important mechanisms in the export effect of mutual recognition of GIs. This research shows that vigorously promoting the mutual recognition of GIs between China and the EU are important factors in promoting the growth of China's agricultural exports and achieving high‐quality agricultural development. [EconLit Citations: F14, Q17, Q18].

Bu çalışmada reel efektif döviz kurunun (RDK) ve reel efektif döviz kur oynaklığının (RDKU) Türkiye‘nin tarımsal dış ticareti üzerine etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye‘nin tarımsal dış ticaretindeki 25 önemli ülke ile 1990-2012 periyodunda panel veri analizleri kullanılmıştır. RDKU‘yu elde etmek için IGARCH modeli uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada RDK ve RDKU Türkiye'nin tarımsal dış ticaretine etkisi, hem ülke bazında hem de panel olarak FMOLS modeli ile incelenmiştir. FMOLS modeli sonuçlarına göre; RDK‘nın %1 artması durumunda Türkiye‘nin tarımsal ithalatı %7,61, tarımsal ihracatın ise %2,24 artış gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. RDKU‘nun %1 artması durumunda, tarımsal ithalatın %18,83 azaldığı belirlenmiştir. Öte yandan tarımsal ihracat ve reel efektif döviz kur oynaklığı arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanılmamıştır. Sonuç itibariyle mevcut sektörel problemler ve reel efektif döviz kuru ve oynaklığının Türkiye‘nin tarımsal dış ticaretinde dengesizliğe yol açtığı söylenebilir. Tarımsal üreticiler ve sanayiciler döviz kuru oynaklığından çoğu zaman olumsuz etkilenmektedirler. Bu sebeplerden dolayı, tarımsal üretici ve sanayiciler için koruyucu tedbirlerin alınması önem arz etmektedir.

The paper analyses the link between avocado, apple, mango and orange exports and agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product in South Africa. The study used secondary time series data that covered a sample size of 20 years (1994 - 2014) of avocado, apple, mango and orange exports in South Africa. Two Stages Least Square models were used for data analysis. Empirical results for agricultural exports equation revealed that agricultural economic growth in South Africa was significant with a positive coefficient. Also a negative relationship between the Net Factor Income (NFI) and the agricultural exports in South Africa was noticed. Real Capital Investments had a significant positive coefficient. Consequently, results from agricultural economic growth equation revealed that agricultural exports were significant with a positive correlation. A relationship between NFI and agricultural GDP was also witnessed. Like other variables, Real Capital Investment was significant but negatively correlated.

The South African exchange rate has been volatile in recent years affecting the competitiveness of commodities in the market. Consequently, South African agricultural exporters have faced lower profitability or entire losses. More South Africa is among the top agricultural exporters in Africa. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports in South Africa using the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model over the period extending from first quarter of 2013 to first quarter of 2024. The study finds that the exchange rate affects agricultural export negatively in South Africa. The findings display that the exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining agricultural exports in South Africa. In addition, this study finds interest rate affects agricultural exports negatively whereas investment and trade openness affect agricultural export positively in South Africa. This infers that agricultural exports in South Africa are explained by various economic factors. Therefore, this study proposes implementing currency stabilisation policies is a crucial strategy to reduce exchange rate volatility, thereby reducing the negative impact on agricultural exports in South Africa. The policymakers can use currency hedging as tool to lessen the negative impact associated with the exchange rate volatility.

The paper assesses the factors influencing South Africa’s agricultural export growth to its cardinal destinations between 2001 and 2014. A gravity model was used to present investigation of trade flows that has been validated as a suitable tool in determining export growth. The findings indicate that an improvement in South Africa’s and importer’s GDP causes an increase in agricultural exports. Distance and political stability have been shown to have no influence on the growth of agricultural exports to its trading partners. The importer’s population and the export capacity showed a positive relationship on the growth of South Africa’s agricultural exports to its trading partners. Trading agreements, which include AGOA and the TDCA with the EU, show a positive impact on increase in export performance. Therefore, the results suggest that South Africa should focus on countries with a growing population and GDP to improve agricultural export growth and market diversification.

The objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth in Burkina Faso. It employs Solow (1956) production function model augmented agricultural exports as a theoretical framework for the analysis. For the empirical analysis, we studied the long-term relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth in Burkina Faso through the cointegration test of Johansen (1988). The data used in this investigation cover the period 1970 to 2018 and come from the database of the World Bank and FAO. The results showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables of the model. As a result, we have estimated a vector error-correction model that shows a positive relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth. The results of the Granger causality test show that it is exports that affect economic growth in Burkina Faso. Thus, it is suggested to policy makers to support agricultural producers through agricultural subsidies or export promotion policies. Keywords: agricultural exports, economic growth, Burkina Faso DOI : 10.7176/JESD/10-22-02 Publication date: November 30 th 2019