REVELANDO RANGOS GEOGRÁFICOS ÓPTIMOS Y REQUERIMIENTOS ECOLÓGICOS DEL Harpia harpyja “ÁGUILA HARPÍA” Y Sarcoramphus papa “CÓNDOR DE LA SELVA” EN EL DEPARTAMENTO DE LORETO, PERÚ

Long-term, inter-annual and seasonal variation in temperature and precipitation influence the distribution and prevalence of intraerythrocytic haemosporidian parasites. We characterized the climatic niche behind the prevalence of the three main haemosporidian genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon) in central-eastern Mexico, to understand their main climate drivers. Then, we projected the influence of climate change over prevalence distribution in the region. Using the MaxEnt modelling algorithm, we assessed the relative contribution of bioclimatic predictor variables to identify those most influential to haemosporidian prevalence in different avian communities within the region. Two contrasting climate change scenarios for 2070 were used to create distribution models to explain spatial turnover in prevalence caused by climate change. We assigned our study sites into polygonal operational climatic units (OCUs) and used the general haemosporidian prevalence for each OCU to indirectly measure environmental suitability for these parasites. A high statistical association between global prevalence and the bioclimatic variables ‘mean diurnal temperature range’ and ‘annual temperature range’ was found. Climate change projections for 2070 showed a significant modification of the current distribution of suitable climate areas for haemosporidians in the study region.

The paper analyses a series of annual, monthly, and daily air temperatures, and annual and monthly precipitation at the Lastovo meteorological station on the island of Lastovo (Croatia) during the 1948-2018 period. The small carbonate Adriatic island of Lastovo is the most remote inhabited island in the Croatian part of the Adriatic Sea. The absolute minimum annual air temperatures range between -6.8 °C (recorded in 1963) and 4.0 °C (recorded in 1974), with an average value of -1.2 °C. The Mean annual air temperatures range between 14.7 °C (recorded in 1980) and 17.4 °C (recorded in 2018), with an average value of 15.8 °C. The absolute maximum annual air temperatures range between 31.7 °C (recorded in 1959) and 38.3 °C (recorded in 1998), with an average value of 34.8 °C. A strong jump in the minimum annual temperatures started in 1972. The mean annual temperature jump began nine years later in 1981, while the maximum annual temperature jump occurred in 1992. The values of the t-test for all three analysed annual temperature indices (ATI) substantiate the conclusion that the average values in two subperiods defined by the RAPS method are statistically significant at the level p<<0.01. The increasing trend of air temperatures is significantly higher for the time series of the average maximum temperature Tmax than for the time series of the average minimum temperature Tmin. The most prominent increasing trend occurs in June and July. The number of warm and hot days in Lastovo has continuously increased over the analysed period. The increasing trends for both indices are statistically significant at the level p<0.01. The day-to-day (DTD) method established a decrease in the night-time to night-time variability, and an increase in the day-time to day-time temperature variability. The number of frost days is steadily decreasing. The average annual precipitation in the 1948-2018 period was 666 mm, while the minimum and the maximum precipitation was 368 mm and 1089 mm, respectively. No trends have been established for the annual and the monthly precipitation time-series during the 1948-2018 period, though a statistically insignificant drop in annual precipitation is found after 1982.

Temperature and precipitation records from 1949 to 1998 were examined for 25 stations throughout the State of Alaska. Mean, maxima, and minima temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and total precipitation were analyzed for linear trends using least squares regressions. Annual and seasonal mean temperature increases were found throughout the entire state, and the majority were found to be statistically significant at the 95% level or better. The highest increases were found in winter in the Interior region (2.2 °C) for the 50 year period of record. Decreases in annual and seasonal mean diurnal temperature range were also found, of which only about half were statistically significant. A state-wide decrease in annual mean diurnal temperature range was found to be 0.3 °C, with substantially higher decreases in the South/Southeastern region in winter. Increases were found in total precipitation for 3 of the 4 seasons throughout most of Alaska, while summer precipitation showed decreases at many stations. Few of the precipitation trends were found to be statistically significant, due to high interannual variability. Barrow, our only station in the Arctic region, shows statistically significant decreases in annual and winter total precipitation. These findings are largely in agreement with existing literature, although they do contradict some of the precipitation trends predicted by the CO2-doubling GCM’s.

Previous studies have demonstrated an association between short-term exposure to ambient temperature and mortality. However, the long-term effects of elevated temperature and temperature variability on mortality have remained somewhat elusive in epidemiological studies. We conducted a comprehensive epidemiological study utilizing Chinese population census data from 2000 and 2010. Census-derived demographic and socioeconomic factors were paired with temperature data from the European Re-Analysis Land Dataset across 2823 counties. We employed a difference-in-difference approach to quantitatively examine the relationship between all-cause mortality and annual exposure to mean temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR). Additionally, we evaluated the potential effects of socioeconomic and environmental covariate modifications on this relationship and calculated the attributable mortality. Lastly, we projected excess deaths attributable to annual temperature exposure under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs, e.g. SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). For each 1 °C rise in annual mean temperature and DTR, the mortality risk could increase by 6.12% (95% CI: 0.84%, 11.69%) and 7.72% (95% CI: 3.75%, 11.84%), respectively. Counties with high labor-force ratios and high NO2 and O3 concentrations appeared to be sensitive to the annual mean temperature and DTR. Climate warming from 2000 to 2010 may have resulted in 5.85 and 14.46 additional deaths per 10 000 people attributable to changes in annual mean temperature and DTR, respectively. The excess mortality related to changes in annual mean temperature and DTR is expected to increase in the future, with special attention warranted for long-term temperature changes in Southwest China. Our findings indicate that long-term mean temperature and DTR could significantly impact mortality rates. Given the spatial heterogeneity of increased mortality risk, the formulation of region-specific strategies to tackle climate change is crucial.

Anthropogenic global warming and deforestation are significant drivers of the global biodiversity crisis. Ectothermic and viviparous animals are especially vulnerable since high environmental temperatures can impair embryonic development, but we lack knowledge about these effects upon Neotropical organisms. Here, we estimate how much of the current area with suitable habitats overlaps with protected areas and model the combined effects of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution of the viviparous Neotropical lizard Notomabuya frenata (Scincidae). This species ranges in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia. We use environmental and physiological variables (locomotor performance and hours of activity) to predict suitable present and future areas, considering different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. The most critical predictors of habitat suitability were isothermality (i.e., the ratio between mean diurnal temperature range and annual temperature range), precipitation during winter, and hours of activity under lower thermal extremes. Still, our models predict a contraction of suitable habitats in all future scenarios and the displacement of these areas towards eastern South America. In addition, protected areas are not enough to ensure suitable habitats for this species. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of tropical and viviparous ectotherms and suggest that even widely distributed species, such as N. frenata , may have their conservation compromised shortly due to the low representativeness of their suitable habitats in protected areas combined with the synergistic effects of climate change and deforestation. We stress the need for decision‐makers to consider the impact of range shifts in creating protected areas and managing endangered species.

Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability using a machine learning technique to investigate this fact. The bioclimatic variables that best explained the climate suitability were Annual Mean Temperature (67.7%) and Temperature Annual Range (21.4%). We found that C. albiceps is climatically suitable for several parts of Europe, except for high altitude areas like the Swiss Alps. In warmer countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the entire coastal territory was the most suitable for the species. Future scenario models show that in these eastern countries and some northern areas, climate suitability has increased. This increase is reinforced when comparing the gains and losses in climate suitability between the present-day model and the future scenario models. These changes are most likely caused by changes in temperature, which is the main explanatory factor among the tested variables, for the climate suitability. As one of the most important species in forensic contexts and a potential myiasis agent, the expansion of C. albiceps to new locations cannot be neglected, and its expansion must be carefully monitored.

AimPlants vary in their hydrological and climatic niches. How these niche dimensions covary among closely related species can help identify co‐adaptations to hydrological and climatic factors, as well as predict biodiversity responses to environmental change.LocationWestern United States.MethodsRelationships between riparian dependence and climate niches of willows (Salix L.) were assessed, incorporating phylogenetics and functional traits to understand the adaptive nature of those relationships. The riparian dependence niche was estimated as the mean distance between georeferenced occurrence records and the nearest stream based on the National Hydrography Database. Results were compared to oaks (Quercus L.), a less riparian‐dependent clade, with the expectation of different niche relationships.ResultsWillows generally occurred closer to streams than expected by chance, but riparian dependence varied substantially among species. Riparian dependence was positively correlated with mean annual temperature and diurnal temperature range niche, both indicators of atmospheric demand on evapotranspiration. Phylogenetic independent contrast correlations for these relationships were significant as well, and the high degree of niche convergence among species indicated evolutionarily labile co‐adaptations to riparian dependence and atmospheric demand. Plant height increased with mean annual temperature niche, and specific leaf area increased with residual variation in height, indicating underlying morphological correlates of niche variation. Oaks, on the other hand, exhibited no relationship between atmospheric demand and riparian dependence, and weaker niche relationships with riparian dependence overall.Main conclusionsThese results support the assertion that hydric‐adapted, woody riparian plants compensate for increased atmospheric demand on transpiration with a reliable supply of water provided by riparian habitats and that this trade‐off may be unique from mesic–xeric woody plants. Conservation of warm‐adapted riparian trees and shrubs under increasing temperatures and atmospheric demand may necessitate reversal of groundwater depletion. Cool‐adapted species may be best conserved through maintenance or expansion of riparian buffers as they become more riparian obligate with warming.

Over the last 100 years, mean annual temperatures in the northern hemisphere have increased by about 1.5 °C, with a temporary warm period in the 1930s followed by a colder period in the years 1965–1980 (see Chap. 1). In the last 20 years, there has been a strong increase of about 1.0 °C in global temperatures. The temperature has shown cyclic variations due to the activity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA), and expressed by annual mean temperatures or annual temperature range (Crawford et al. 2002). Over the last 50 years a steady increase in the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere from 315 to 360 ppm has been recorded (Callaghan 1993). The recent increase in global CO2 is mainly due to increased output of fossil fuel. Increased CO2 is in turn expected to lead to higher absorption rates of long-wave radiation in the atmosphere (the greenhouse effect), thereby increasing temperatures. According to predictions, a future doubling of the CO2 concentrations from 360 to 720 ppm would result in a 3–4 °C increase in mean winter temperatures and 1–2 °C increase in summer temperatures in the northern hemisphere (Callaghan 1993). The impact of raised temperature on sensitive stages like seed reproduction, winter dormancy, migration rates and soil conditions (Callaghan 1993; Heide 1993; Huntley 1997) is expected to affect subarctic plant species. Higher CO2 levels will normally cause increased growth rates due to a combination of greater photosynthetic rates and water use efficiency (Hall et al. 1993). In most deciduous trees, e.g. birch, shoot growth will take place over the whole season (‘free growth’) and there will be no sink limitation on photosynthesis. Thornley (1972) developed a model for balanced shoot/root growth at varying temperatures by regulating the C/N ratio. The expected CO2 increase would lead to a higher C/N ratio that would have to be balanced by increased root growth. The most pronounced effect of increased CO2 is therefore an

Tertiary climates and floristic relationships at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere

Hot or not? Impact of seasonally variable soil carbonate formation on paleotemperature and O-isotope records from clumped isotope thermometry

The Mongolian steppes with a long history of nomadic pastoralism cover a large area of the Palaearctic steppe biome and are still relatively intact. As livestock number has increased over the last two decades, grazing has been considered as the main reason of pasture degradation. However, the impact of grazing on vegetation dynamics, and its interaction with climate, is still not clear. We reviewed 44 publications in Mongolian language, covering 109 sites in five main steppe types, i.e., desert, dry, meadow, mountain, and high mountain steppe, with a mean annual precipitation and temperature range from 120 to 370 mm and from −6 to +5°C, respectively. We calculated relative changes in vegetation cover, species richness, and aboveground biomass from heavily grazed with respect to lightly/non-grazed conditions. Multiple linear regression models were used to test the impact of environmental factors, i.e., mean annual precipitation, coefficient of variation for precipitation, mean annual temperature and elevation. Grazing had a stronger effect on the vegetation of dry, desert and high mountain steppes, whereas its effect was less pronounced in the meadow and mountain steppes with mesic climate and high productivity. Vegetation cover, species richness and aboveground biomass were reduced by heavy grazing in the dry, desert and high mountain steppes. In the meadow steppes, grazing reduced vegetation cover, but increased richness and had nearly no effect on biomass. In the mountain steppe, richness and cover were not affected, but biomass was reduced by heavy grazing. Additionally, grazing effects on biomass tended to be more pronounced at sites with higher amounts of annual precipitation, and effects on cover changed from negative to positive as elevation increased. In conclusion, grazing effects in Mongolian steppes are overall negative in desert, dry and high mountain steppes, but no or even positive effects are found in meadow and mountain steppes. Especially, heavy grazing showed a detrimental effect on all vegetation variables in desert steppes, indicating the existence of combined pressure of climate and grazing in arid habitats, making them potentially sensitive to overgrazing and climate change. Grassland conservation and management should consider characteristics of different steppe types and give importance to local environmental conditions.

<p>Understanding origins of biodiversity likely requires explanation of how species richness and environment co-vary across the scales of interest, here 10-10,000 km (e.g. river reaches to latitudinal diversity gradients). We focus on quantifying scale and location dependent coherence between terrestrial vertebrate species (carnivorans, bats, songbirds, hummingbirds, amphibians) and topography, mean annual temperature, temperature range, and precipitation. We test the following three hypotheses by developing and applying wavelet spectral techniques. First, as in most geophysical systems, processes operating at long length scales generate most of the topographic and biotic signals observed. Second, scaling regimes can be identified from topographic and biological spatial series, e.g. transects through topographic or species richness, and they indicate that distinct physical regimes govern biodiversity at different scales. Finally, similarities and dissimilarities exist between topographic or biotic spatial series and environmental variables at a range of locations and scales. We examined latitudinal transects through the Americas, Africa, Australia, Asia and global averages. Species richness is shown to be highly coherent and anti-phase with elevation and temperature range, and in-phase with mean annual precipitation and temperature, at scales >1000 km. Coherence between carnivorans and temperature range is low across all scales, which suggest that their richness is insensitive to daily or seasonal changes in temperature. Amphibians, meanwhile, are highly correlated with temperature range at large scales. At scales <1000 km, all species examined, bar carnivorans, show highest richness in the tropics. Terrestrial plateaux are foci of high coherence between carnivorans and elevation at scales centred on 1000 km, which is consistent with the idea that tectonic processes can contribute to biodiversity. The results obtained by spectral analyses of terrestrial species richness and environmental variables highlight the scale-dependent sensitivities of mammals, birds and amphibians to global and local environmental changes.</p>

Extreme and persistent reductions in annual precipitation and an increase in the mean diurnal temperature range have resulted in patch scale forest mortality following the summer of 2010–2011 within the Forest study area near Perth, Western Australia. The impacts of 20 bioclimatic indicators derived from temperature, precipitation and of actual and potential evapotranspiration are quantified. We found that spatially aggregated seasonal climatologies across the study area show 2011 with an annual mean of 17.7 °C (± 5.3 °C) was 1.1 °C warmer than the mean over recent decades (1981–2011,- 16.6 °C ± 4.6 °C) and the mean has been increasing over the last decade. Compared to the same period, 2010–2011 summer maximum temperatures were 1.4 °C (31.6 °C ± 2.0 °C) higher and the annual mean diurnal temperature range (Tmax−Tmin) was 1.6 °C higher (14.7 °C ± 0.5 °C). In 2009, the year before the forest mortality began, annual precipitation across the study area was 69% less (301 mm ± 38 mm) than the mean of 1981–2010 (907 mm ± 69 mm). Using Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre mission 5 (SPOT-5) satellite imagery captured after the summer of 2010–2011 we map a broad scale forest mortality event across the Forested study area. This satellite-climatology based methodology provides a means of monitoring and mapping similar forest mortality events- a critical contribution to our understanding the dynamical bioclimatic drivers of forest mortality events.

Effect of climate on provincial-level banana yield in the Philippines

1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势