RETURN SPILLOVERS BETWEEN EMERGING MARKETS’ FINANCIAL STRESS AND EQUITY MARKETS OF BRIC-T COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study explores the connectedness between selected emerging equity markets (BRIC-T) and the
 Emerging Markets Financial Stress Index (EMFSI). We aim to reveal the extent of spillovers from stock
 market indices to aggregated financial tension in these countries. Empirical investigations are executed
 through Quantile Vector Autoregression analysis. Results show that spillovers occur mainly during extreme
 negative and positive return periods. When we focus on four important phases, namely Global Financial
 Crisis (GFC), the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war,
 three countries come to the fore. While Brazil has had a substantial and persistent impact across the years,
 during the GFC, two other countries, Russia and Türkiye, seem to induce positive return spillovers toward
 emerging markets’ stress. This impact becomes bilateral in Russia (both in positive and negative returns)
 during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Thus, we conclude that among the examined market
 economies, negative or positive return transmissions to emerging market stress are led mainly by Brazil and
 Russia. The importance of energy sources and political factors can account for this result.