Abstract
: There are various dimensions of the COVID-19 warning problem. For example, how did the scientific, intelligence, and strategic studies communities issue accurate diffuse warnings of the growing risk of a global pandemic? This raises the possibility that the warnings issued might have been misleading because they focus on the disease’s details and not on the second- and third-order effects that would significantly impede national and global responses to coronavirus. The pandemic outbreak also led to the acceleration of ongoing work in the pharmaceutical industry, producing “game-changing” medical advances that might soon be replicated in other fields. It may be time to develop a specialized organization—a warning “skunkworks”—whose sole mission is to identify and assess the impact of novel developments in both domestic and international settings.
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