Abstract
Abstract. Climate extremes, such as floods and droughts, might have severe economic and societal impacts. Given the high costs associated with these events, developing early-warning systems is of high priority. Evaporation, which is driven by around 50 % of solar energy absorbed at surface of the Earth, is an important indicator of the global water budget, monsoon precipitation, drought monitoring and the hydrological cycle. Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main modes of interannual climate variability, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These climate modes may have an influence on temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and wind speed and are likely to have impacts on global evaporation. We utilized data of historical simulations and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) future simulations derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, especially the tropical Pacific. The significant IOD influence on evaporation is limited in western tropical Indian Ocean, while NAO is more likely to have impacts on evaporation of the North Atlantic European areas. There is high agreement between models in simulating the effects of climate modes on evaporation of these regions. Land evaporation is found to be less sensitive to considered climate modes compared to oceanic evaporation. The spatial influence of major climate modes on global evaporation is slightly more significant for NAO and the IOD and slightly less significant for ENSO in the 1906–2000 period compared to the 2006–2100 period. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and hence, may improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes and water resource management.
Highlights
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; e.g., Hurrell et al, 2003), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD; Saji et al, 1999; Webster et al, 1999) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; e.g., Bjerknes, 1969; Neelin et al, 1998) are major modes of global climate variability
ENSO is more likely to have an influence on numerous regions of both hemispheres, including middle Asia, the Indian Ocean, southeastern Asia, Australia (Fig. S1b), the tropical Pacific and northeastern South America (i.e., Amazonia, Fig. S1c), and the Pacific coast of America (Fig. S1d)
ENSO causal effects on global precipitation are shown in Fig. S2c, which indicates the close connection between precipitation and evaporation processes in several regions
Summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; e.g., Hurrell et al, 2003), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD; Saji et al, 1999; Webster et al, 1999) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; e.g., Bjerknes, 1969; Neelin et al, 1998) are major modes of global climate variability These climate modes may have an influence on important drivers of evaporation such as surface temperature (e.g., Arora et al, 2016; Leung and Zhou, 2016; Sun et al, 2016; Thirumalai et al, 2017; Wang et al, 2017), precipitation (Dai and Wigley, 2000), soil moisture (Nicolai-Shaw et al, 2016), humidity (Hegerl et al, 2015) and wind speed (Hurrell et al, 2003; Yeh et al, 2018). Land evaporation is shown to have an influences on carbon cycles
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