Abstract
Abstract Flood events are typically triggered by extreme precipitation in rain-dominant basins. In this study, to better understand the genetic mechanisms and characteristics of floods, copula functions are used to analyze the response of flood events to extreme precipitation. The coincidence probabilities of the typical extreme flood and precipitation events are calculated; different return periods of their arbitrary combinations are calculated, whereas the dangerous domains for flood control under different return periods are identified; furthermore, flood risk analysis under different extreme precipitation scenarios is performed via their conditional exceedance probabilities. The Xitiaoxi catchment (XC) and Dongtiaoxi catchment (DC) in the Zhexi Region of the Taihu Basin are selected as the study area. The results show that in four scenarios with precipitation frequencies of 80%, 90%, 93.33%, and 95%, the probabilities of the dangerous flood are 9.72%, 10.57%, 10.86%, and 11.01% in the XC, respectively, and 5.91%, 6.31%, 6.44%, and 6.51% in the DC, respectively. This study provides a practical basis and guidance for the computation of rainstorm designs, management of flood control safety, and water resource scheduling in the Taihu Basin.
Highlights
Floods occur frequently and are widely distributed, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses worldwide, in plain river network areas with developed economies and dense populations. (UNISDR ; Zeng et al ; Thapa et al )
Liu et al investigated the relationships between the onset of plum rains and the rainfall amount during the plum rains period in the Taihu Basin based on the copula function; the results showed that changes in floods appearing during the early onset of plum rains must be the focus (Liu et al )
We used six distribution models to fit the marginal distributions for the MF and Pr series in the Xitiaoxi catchment (XC) and Dongtiaoxi catchment (DC), and the results are shown in Figures 5 and 6
Summary
Floods occur frequently and are widely distributed, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses worldwide, in plain river network areas with developed economies and dense populations. (UNISDR ; Zeng et al ; Thapa et al ). The Taihu Basin is a typical plain river network area in China, located in the economically developed Yangtze River Delta. In 2016, direct economic losses due to flood disasters in the Taihu Basin were $1.06 billion, accounting for 0.12% of its GDP (Wang ). In 1991 and 1999, the direct economic losses due to flood disasters accounted for 6.7% and 1.6% of the GDP in the corresponding year (Xu ; Wang et al ). Within this context, satisfying national and municipal demands for a better understanding of flood risks in the Taihu Basin is of top priority for scientific and effective disaster prevention and mitigation work (Tanaka et al )
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