Abstract

The State of Vermont, USA seeks to expand the generation and use of renewable electricity over the coming decades. I apply a social-ecological-technical systems framework to investigate the resource potential and land use tradeoffs of development of in-state commercial-scale solar photovoltaic and wind electricity generation facilities in Vermont. Based on existing policy goals, I calculate number of facilities required and use spatial modeling and simulation to assess solar photovoltaic and wind resource potential, suitable siting patterns and tradeoffs between resource productivity and biodiversity. This assessment finds that Vermont will require from 178 to 1,527 - 2.2 MW solar photovoltaic facilities and an additional 9 to 76 - 20 MW wind facilities by 2032. Vermont's solar photovoltaic resource potential is equivalent to 18.9 percent of the state's total land area, and wind resource potential is equivalent to 3.1 percent of the state's total land area. Vermont holds sufficient solar and wind resource potential to support the state's renewable electricity policy goals. Renewable electricity development in Vermont will require confronting a tradeoff between use of areas with either lower resource potential or moderate biodiversity value. The conceptualization of Vermont's emerging renewable energy system as a social-ecological-technical system can guide future research and decision making.

Highlights

  • The State of Vermont, USA seeks to expand the generation and use of renewable electricity over the coming decades

  • Q5: At what scale of renewable electricity generation in Vermont might we expect to confront tradeoffs? I compare the alternative approaches and resulting tradeoffs when achieving the required extent of land use change, either through use of areas offering lower resource classes (RS5: Productivity of the system) or higher biodiversity values (O2: Ecological performance measures)

  • I calculated the number of solar PV and wind generating facilities required in Vermont (U1: Number of user) under each of the six alternative scenarios as defined by the importance of the resource (U8) and the technology used (U9) for 2032, and thereby estimated the land area required for the total facility footprints (Table 1)

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Summary

Introduction

The State of Vermont, USA seeks to expand the generation and use of renewable electricity over the coming decades. While Vermont’s energy system is currently highly dependent on nonrenewable resources [4], electricity generation presumably offers greater potential for increased renewable resource use in the short term [11]. Given the current understanding of Vermont’s RE SETS and the state’s policy goals, several research questions motivate the present work on direct land use tradeoffs of renewable electricity generation in Vermont. To consider direct social and ecological tradeoffs of the development of renewable electricity in Vermont, I formulate questions relevant to land use changes. I compare the alternative approaches and resulting tradeoffs when achieving the required extent of land use change, either through use of areas offering lower resource classes (RS5: Productivity of the system) or higher biodiversity values (O2: Ecological performance measures). I hypothesize that tradeoffs become apparent between resource productivity and biodiversity with even small increases in LUCC due to development of facilities

Results and Key Findings
Interpretation of Results
Implications and Limitations of Research
MW solar PV facilities 20 MW wind facilities
Conclusions
Comprehensive Energy Plan 2011
11. Comprehensive Energy Plan 2011
19. Vermont
24. Siting electric generation in Vermont
28. The three-legged race
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