Resilient Preventive Dispatch Considering Load Priority and Interdependence of Critical Infrastructures

Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is one of the more promising simulation techniques to study the interdependencies in critical infrastructures. Moreover, federated simulation has two relevant properties, simulation models reuse and expertise sharing, that could be exploited in a multi-sectorial field, such as critical infrastructure protection. In this paper we propose a new methodology which exploits the benefit of both ABMS and Federated simulation, to study interdependencies in critical infrastructures. First of all we discus advantages of federated agent-based modeling and difficulties in implementing a Federated ABMS framework. To demonstrate the relevance of our solution we propose an example driven approach that poses the attention on critical information infrastructure. We have also implemented a Federated ABMS framework, which federate Repast, an agent-based simulation engine and OMNeT++ an IT systems and communication networks modeling and simulation environment. A selection of simulation results shown how Federated ABMS could shed light on system interdependencies and how it helps in quantifying them.

Stochastic pre-event preparation for enhancing resilience of distribution systems

The increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events resulting from climate change have led to grid outages and other negative consequences. To ensure the resilience of buildings which serve as primary shelters for occupants, resilient strategies are being developed to improve their ability to withstand these extreme events (e.g., building upgrades and renewable energy generators and storage). However, a crucial step towards creating a resilient built environment is accurately estimating building performance during such conditions using historical extreme climate change-induced weather events. To conduct Building Performance Simulation (BPS) in extreme conditions, such as weather events induced by climate change, it is essential to utilize Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather files instead of Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files. AMY files capture the precise climatic conditions during extreme weather events, enabling accurate simulation of such scenarios. These weather files provide valuable data that can be used to assess the vulnerabilities and resilience of buildings to extreme weather events. By analyzing past events and their impacts using BPS tools, we can gain insights into the specific weaknesses and areas that require improvement. This approach applies to both existing buildings needing climate change-resilient retrofits and new building designs that must be compatible with future climatic conditions. Moreover, the intensification and frequency increase of these extreme weather events makes developing adaptation and resilient-building measures imperative. This involves understanding the potential losses that households may experience due to the intensification of extreme events and developing farsighted coping strategies and climate-proof resilient-building initiatives. However, addressing the knowledge gap caused by the absence of an AMY weather file dataset of extreme events is essential. This will allow for accurate BPS during past extreme climate change-induced weather events. To fill this gap, this article introduces a comprehensive .epw format weather file dataset focusing on historical extreme weather events in Canada. This collection encompasses a diverse array of past extreme climate change occurrences in various locations, with potential for future expansion to include additional locations and countries. This dataset enables energy simulations for different types of buildings and considers a diverse range of historical weather conditions, allowing for better estimation of thermal performance.

Proposed methodology for risk analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures to extreme weather events

The occurrence of large-scale outages in power distribution systems (PDSs) caused, for instance, by extreme weather events has raised concerns on the cascading impact of the power outages on the resilience of other critical infrastructures, including water distribution systems (WDSs), whose healthy operation highly relies on the availability of power from PDSs. This paper proposes an analytics model for quantifying the interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems. The proposed model first performs spatio-temporal outage analysis on the PDS and WDS to determine the PDS power serving capability and the resulting cascading impact on the WDS water serving capability during the occurrence of disruptions. The resilience interdependence is then determined by a proposed set of six metrics calculated using the power and water serving capability profiles, which trace and quantify the cascading impacts of power outages in the operation of WDSs during the degradation and recovery stages. The proposed analytics model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus power distribution system supplying power for pumping stations of a 15-node test WDS, considering multiple cases of water storage capacity, single and multiple outage scenarios, and availability of distributed generation. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed metrics track the temporal and spatial interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems, providing a mechanism to identify weak spots, and assess options to enhance the resilience of the critical water infrastructure.

BACKGROUND: Island communities such as Puerto Rico (PR) are profoundly impacted by climate extremes. Patients with chronic disease, particularly cancer, have unique needs and challenges in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Understanding cancer patients’ barriers, knowledge, risks, and vulnerabilities are essential to develop equitable adaptation strategies. This research aims to investigate the perceptions and experiences of cancer patients associated with extreme weather events over the past 10 years in Puerto Rico (PR). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study via survey questionnaires (April 22, 2023-June 8, 2023) among adults aged ≥21 years from Puerto Rico who are cancer patients/survivors (n=207). A total of 23 questions listed on the survey were used to collect information on variables of interest which included demographic characteristics, information on extreme weather event experiences, and attitude towards climate change. Using the data collected, descriptive statistics were used to describe the study population and multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of interest (IRB approval # 2023-04-101). RESULTS: The average age of individuals recruited is 56.3 years ±13.5 SD, 79.7% are female, 65.2% reported having additional chronic diseases, and 85.0% have more than a high-school education. Regarding extreme weather events, 99% of cancer patients and survivors reported floods, including coastal, fluvial, and urban floods, impacted their communities, 76% reported tropical cyclones impacted their residences and communities, and 72% reported extreme heat impacted both their residences and communities in the last 10 years. Additionally, the most common problems encountered in the aftermath of these extreme weather events were water (88.4%) and electricity service interruption (91.4%), as well as water (88.9%) and electricity service interruption (77.1%). Most participants reported feeling very and extremely worried about their health in the face of climate change (75.0%) and feeling concerned about climate change (85.0%). After adjusting for age, sex, and education, logistic regression models showed that participants with more than one cancer type were more likely to be worried about their health in the face of climate change (OR=2.40,95% CI=1.06-5.35). CONCLUSION: Study findings highlight the burden of extreme weather events and the problems encountered in the aftermath of such events on cancer patients in Puerto Rico. This population expresses concern and worry about climate change and their health, respectively. This information is important for cancer control and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and management strategies to remove detrimental and avoidable impacts on cancer populations. Citation Format: Jimena Perez, Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro, Fabiola A. Rivera-Gastón, Ana P. Ortiz. Assessing the impact of extreme climate weather events on cancer patients in Puerto Rico: A cross-sectional study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 16th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2023 Sep 29-Oct 2;Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023;32(12 Suppl):Abstract nr A114.

Flood cascading on critical infrastructure with climate change: A spatial analysis of the extreme weather event in Xinxiang, China

Climatic changes lead to many extreme weather events throughout the globe. These extreme weather events influence our behavior, exposing us to different environmental conditions, such as poor indoor quality. Poor indoor air quality (IAQ) poses a significant concern in the modern era, as people spend up to 90% of their time indoors. Ventilation influences key IAQ elements such as temperature, relative humidity, and particulate matter (PM). Children, considered a vulnerable group, spend approximately 30% of their time in educational settings, often housed in old structures with poorly maintained ventilation systems. Extreme weather events lead young students to stay indoors, usually behind closed doors and windows, which may lead to exposure to elevated levels of air pollutants. In our research, we aim to demonstrate how real-time monitoring of air pollutants and other environmental parameters under extreme weather is important for regulating the indoor environment. A study was conducted in a school building with limited ventilation located in an arid region near the Red Sea, which frequently suffers from high PM concentrations. In this study, we tracked the indoor environmental conditions and air quality during the entire month of May 2022, including an extreme outdoor weather event of sandstorms. During this month, we continuously monitored four classrooms in an elementary school built in 1967 in Eilat. Our findings indicate that PM2.5 was higher indoors (statistically significant) by more than 16% during the extreme event. Temperature was also elevated indoors (statistically significant) by more than 5%. The parameters’ deviation highlights the need for better indoor weather control and ventilation systems, as well as ongoing monitoring in schools to maintain healthy indoor air quality. This also warrants us as we are approaching an era of climatic instability, including higher occurrence of similar extreme events, which urge us to develop real-time responses in urban areas.

A Decision Support System for the Resilience of Critical Transport Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events

Investigating the importance of critical infrastructures' interdependencies during recovery; lessons from Hurricane Irma in Saint-Martin's island

Resilience improvement of multi-microgrid distribution networks using distributed generation

Recent experience from Hurricane Sandy and high-temperature episodes has clearly demonstrated that the health of New Yorkers can be compromised by extreme coastal storms and heat events. Health impacts that can result from exposure to extreme weather events include direct loss of life, increases in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and compromised mental health. Other related health stressors—such as air pollution, pollen, and vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases—can also be influenced by weather and climate. Figure 5.1 illustrates the complex pathways linking extreme weather events to adverse health outcomes in New York City. New York City and the surrounding metropolitan region face potential health risks related to two principal climate hazards: (1) increasing temperatures and heat waves, and (2) coastal storms and flooding. The health impacts of these hazards depend in turn on myriad pathways, the most important of which are illustrated in the figure. Figure 5.1 Pathways linking climate hazards to health impacts in New York City. Although New York City is one of the best-prepared and most climate-resilient cities in the world, there remain significant potential vulnerabilities related to climate variability and change. As part of the NPCC2 process, a team of local climate and health specialists was mobilized to assess current vulnerabilities and to identify strategies that could enhance the resilience of New York City to adverse health impacts from climate events. The goal was to highlight some of the important climate-related health challenges that New York City is currently facing or may face in the future due to climate variability and change, based on emerging scientific understanding. As indicated in Figure 5.1, health vulnerabilities can be magnified when critical infrastructure is compromised. Critical infrastructure is a highly complex, heterogeneous, and interdependent mix of facilities, systems, and functions that are vulnerable to a wide variety of threats, including extreme weather events. For example, delivery of electricity to households depends on a multi-faceted electrical grid system that is susceptible to blackouts that can occur during heat waves. These, in turn, can expose people to greater risk of contact with exposed wires or to greater heat stress due to failure of air conditioning. Understanding and predicting the impacts that extreme weather events may have on health in New York City require careful analysis of these interactions. Two recent plans to enhance climate resiliency in New York City have been released. A Stronger, More Resilient New York (City of New York, 2013) was developed in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy by a task force of representatives from City agencies and consultants. This plan was informed by a detailed analysis of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on infrastructure and the built environment and by the NPCC’s updated 2013 climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. It includes more than 250 initiatives and actionable recommendations addressing 14 domains of the built environment and infrastructure including the healthcare system and several other domains relevant to protecting public health. In addition, the 2014 New York City Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) (City of New York, 2014), developed by the NYC Office of Emergency Management in collaboration with the Department of City Planning, updated the 2009 HMP and assesses risks from multiple hazards that threaten New York City. These include but are not limited to several climate-related hazards such as coastal storms and heat waves, and it lays out comprehensive strategies and plans to address these hazards. Many of the measures recommended by A Stronger, More Resilient New York and the HMP have already been implemented, are in progress, or are planned (City of New York, 2013; 2014). This chapter does not include a detailed review of these plans, which would be beyond the expertise and charge of the contributors. Nonetheless, the recommendations in this chapter do broadly support the plans laid out in A Stronger, More Resilient New York and the 2014 HMP, and these are referenced at several points where they are especially relevant. Here we focus on summarizing and synthesizing the emerging scientific knowledge on climate-related health hazards, knowledge that can inform ongoing preparedness planning. Key terms related to climate variability and change as they are applied in the health sector are defined in Box 5.1. This is followed by sections describing health risks, vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies for coastal storms and extreme heat events. We then briefly discuss the interactions of climate change with air pollution, pollen, vector-borne diseases, and water- and food-borne diseases. We conclude with recommendations for research and resiliency planning. Box 5.1 Definitions of key cross-cutting terms in the health context Adaptation Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, such as anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned. For health, physiological adaptation is also relevant.

Extreme weather events, unpredictable and often far-reaching, constitute a persistent challenge for public health preparedness. The goal of this research is to inform public health systems improvement through examination of extreme weather events, comparing across cases to identify recurring patterns in event and response characteristics. Structured telephone-based interviews were conducted with representatives from health departments to assess characteristics of recent extreme weather events and agencies' responses. Response activities were assessed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities framework. Challenges that are typical of this response environment are reported. Forty-five local health departments in 20 US states. Respondents described public health system responses to 45 events involving tornadoes, flooding, wildfires, winter weather, hurricanes, and other storms. Events of similar scale were infrequent for a majority (62%) of the communities involved; disruption to critical infrastructure was universal. Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities considered most essential involved environmental health investigations, mass care and sheltering, surveillance and epidemiology, information sharing, and public information and warning. Unanticipated response activities or operational constraints were common. We characterize extreme weather events as a "quadruple threat" because (1) direct threats to population health are accompanied by damage to public health protective and community infrastructure, (2) event characteristics often impose novel and pervasive burdens on communities, (3) responses rely on critical infrastructures whose failure both creates new burdens and diminishes response capacity, and (4) their infrequency and scale further compromise response capacity. Given the challenges associated with extreme weather events, we suggest opportunities for organizational learning and preparedness improvements.

In Australia, wheat production occurs on over 13 million hectares, producing on average 19 million tonnes of wheat per year. Extreme weather events, such as frost and heat shock (short period of very high temperatures (>35°C)), can reduce wheat yields and represent a substantial management challenge. Damage due to frost and heat shock is greatest at ear emergence and around anthesis causing significant reductions in grain number and yield potential. Heat shock can also significantly reduce grain weight during the grain fill period when the risk of heat is greatest. Paddock-based crop models currently used to simulate crop production do not adequately account for the impact of extreme weather events such as frost and heat shock on yield components. While it is feasible to construct crop modules which capture this impact by extreme short term weather events, we felt it was important to quantify the frequency and spatial extent of the problem. This was important in determining whether the frequency and extent of potential grain losses from extreme weather events warranted the inclusion of added parameter input complexity within crop models. By taking into account the interactions between climate and crop phenology we were able to categorise areas as frequently affected by either frost or heat shock, those areas affected by both heat and frost and finally those areas which were rarely affected by either. Strategies to reduce the risks of extreme events will potentially be different for each of these regions. This paper investigates the spatial extent of where there is potential for improvements to the grains industry by having crop models which account for extreme heat and frost impacts linked to the key phenological crop stages. By incorporating phenological crop development, initiated by the autumn-break our analysis has established the actual frequency of overlap between extreme events and key phenological stages each year. This is important in determining the value of developing heat and frost modules to incorporate into crop models. To quantify the risk frequency of extreme heat and frost events across southern Australia's wheat growing regions the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT, DEPI Victoria) was used. The study area (ca. 68 million hectares) incorporated agricultural land within the 200-1000 mm annual rainfall region and was significantly larger than the actual area sown to wheat annually. Two key periods were considered (a) a two week period centered on anthesis (50% of crop flowering) and (b) grain fill, for mid-season wheat variety using 50 years historical climate data. Based on our assumption of sowing at the autumn break, the occurrence of frost around anthesis and extreme heat during the grain fill period were important both in terms of frequency of occurrence and spatial area affected. Across the study region approximately 27% (ca. 18.5 million hectares) had a greater than 1:3 chance of both frost and extreme heat occurring at key crop phenological times, while 29% of the study area was generally affected by heat only during grain fill and 32% was generally affect by frost only. Additionally 12% (ca. 8 million hectares) had a less than 1:3 frequency of both frost and extreme heat occurring at key crop phenological times.

In today’s world, the safety, economic prosperity, and social well-being of nations depend heavily on highly interconnected critical infrastructures. These infrastructures encompass power networks, natural gas systems, communication networks, water treatment facilities, and transportation systems. Gaining insight into the behavior of these infrastructures, particularly during stress or attacks, has become crucial for both the private and public sectors. Ensuring an adequate level of functionality during emergencies, such as disasters, is also a priority, which can be attained by enhancing infrastructure resilience. Resilience metrics and models play a significant role in understanding the complex interplay between the behaviors and operational characteristics of interdependent critical infrastructures. Additionally, these models and metrics must demonstrate the interdependencies among infrastructures to provide a more comprehensive representation of infrastructure resilience. This paper reviews, categorizes, and presents resilience metrics and models for Smart Interdependent Critical Infrastructures (Smart ICIs). This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of various resilience models and measurements tailored specifically for interdependent critical smart infrastructures. It includes the essential terminology and definitions related to the resilience of Smart ICIs, investigates the universally recognized phases and capabilities of resilience, and examines the various types of failures that could potentially affect Smart ICIs.