Resilient Built Environment: An Overview on Design Strategies for Coastal Adaptation to Sea Level Rise

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk

In New Zealand, climate scientists predict that climate change-induced sea level rise will have an earlier and greater impact on coastal communities than previously anticipated. In Auckland, the “City of Sails,” Aucklanders’ prize the opportunity to sail on the ocean and live near the beach. However, in 2019 Auckland Council released information that by 2060, a projected increase of 50 cm sea level rise would inundate the homes of 43,000 citizens. If citizens are to safeguard their lifestyles, they need to make effective decisions about how and where they choose to live. While artists are not often qualified to disseminate scientific knowledge, they are able to offer artistic comprehension through aesthetic intelligence, experientiality, and the creation of mental imagery. Building on this position, this chapter explores how an art-science exhibition, Blue Radius, deployed a range of sensorial, emotional, and scientific perspectives to imaginatively engage citizens with the phenomena of climate change-induced sea level rise and present relevant scientific information to assist citizens develop informed decision-making skills.

Assessment of coastal flood risk scenarios on infrastructure in the Keta municipality in Ghana using a GIS approach

Simulation of hydrodynamic changes and salinity intrusion in the lower Vietnamese Mekong Delta under climate change-induced sea level rise and upstream river discharge

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 551:13-30 (2016) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11756 Small-scale benthos distribution modelling in a North Sea tidal basin in response to climatic and environmental changes (1970s-2009) A. Singer1,2,*, U. Schückel1, M. Beck3, O. Bleich4, H.-J. Brumsack3, H. Freund3, C. Geimecke5, K. A. Lettmann3, G. Millat6, J. Staneva5, A. Vanselow3, H. Westphal7, J.-O. Wolff3, A. Wurpts7, I. Kröncke1 1Senckenberg am Meer, Dept. for Marine Research, Südstrand 40, 26382 Wilhelmshaven, Germany 2INTERCOAST Research Training Group, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, 26359 Bremen, Germany 3Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment (ICBM), Carl von Ossietzky University, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 9-11, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany 4Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology, Am Seedeich 45, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany 5Helmholtz-Centre Geesthacht (HZG), Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany 6National Park Administration Wadden Sea Lower Saxony (NLPV), Virchowstraße 1, 26382 Wilhelmshaven, Germany 7Coastal Research Station - Lower Saxony Water Management, Coastal Defence and Nature Conservation Agency (NLWKN), An der Mühle 5, 26548 Norderney, Germany *Corresponding author: anja.singer@senckenberg.de ABSTRACT: We used small-scale species distribution models to predict the past and present spatial distribution of 7 characteristic macrofauna species in response to climatic and environmental changes that have been recorded for the Jade Bay (German Wadden Sea) over the last 4 decades (1970s to 2009). Four presence-absence modelling algorithms (RF, MARS, GLM, GBM) were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform ‘biomod2’. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled based on statistical relationships between species presences, true species absences and 7 high-resolution (5 m) environmental grids. The past spatial distribution (representing the 1970s) was then hindcast in response to climate change-induced (1) sea-level rise, (2) water temperature increase and (3) seagrass recovery due to de-eutrophication. The past distribution scenario was evaluated using independent historical macrofauna data from the 1970s. Present ensemble prediction maps accurately captured the potential ecological niches of the modelled species throughout Jade Bay (i.e. good to excellent true skill statistic [TSS] and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] evaluation measures). The predicted present macrofauna distribution correlated most significantly with hydrodynamic conditions (submergence time, shear stress) and sediment characteristics (mud content). The past distribution scenario revealed significant changes in small-scale spatial distribution patterns of the characteristic modelled species (1970s to 2009) and showed a very good match with historical macrofauna data. Climate change-induced sea-level rise and its local implications for Jade Bay (changes in topography, tidal range and submergence time), and water temperature increase explained the potential macrofauna distribution shifts over the last 4 decades. KEY WORDS: Ensemble models · Hindcasting · Sea-level rise · Water temperature increase · Wadden Sea World Heritage Site · Seagrass recovery · Marine ecosystems · Benthos Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Singer A, Schückel U, Beck M, Bleich O and others (2016) Small-scale benthos distribution modelling in a North Sea tidal basin in response to climatic and environmental changes (1970s-2009). Mar Ecol Prog Ser 551:13-30. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11756 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 551. Online publication date: June 09, 2016 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2016 Inter-Research.

Climate-related uncertainties in urban exposure to sea level rise and storm surge flooding: a multi-temporal and multi-scenario analysis

Global warming may result in substantial sea level rise and more intense hurricanes over the next century, leading to more severe coastal flooding. Here, observed climate and sea level trends over the last century (c. 1900s to 2000s) are used to provide insight regarding future coastal inundation trends. The actual impacts of Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans are compared with the impacts of a similar hypothetical hurricane occurring c. 1900. Estimated regional sea level rise since 1900 of 0.75 m, which contains a dominant land subsidence contribution (0.57 m), serves as a ‘prototype’ for future climate-change induced sea level rise in other regions. Landform conditions c. 1900 were estimated by changing frictional resistance based on expected additional wetlands at lower sea levels. Surge simulations suggest that flood elevations would have been 15 to 60 % lower c. 1900 than the conditions observed in 2005. This drastic change suggests that significantly more flood damage occurred in 2005 than would have occurred if sea level and climate conditions had been like those c. 1900. We further show that, in New Orleans, sea level rise dominates surge-induced flooding changes, not only by increasing mean sea level, but also by leading to decreased wetland area. Together, these effects enable larger surges. Projecting forward, future global sea level changes of the magnitude examined here are expected to lead to increased flooding in coastal regions, even if the storm climate is unchanged. Such flooding increases in densely populated areas would presumably lead to more widespread destruction.

Coastal communities are increasingly threatened by flooding from climate change-induced sea level rise and potential increases in storminess. Informed decisions on risk and resilience related to flood risk need to be made, but the assessment process is complex. It is difficult to bring all of the climate science and sea level rise projections to decision-making, and as a result, decisions are made without a real understanding of the uncertainties involved, a problem magnified the further projections go into the future (Figure 1).

Increasing sea levels and anthropogenic disturbances have caused the world’s coastal vegetation to decline 25-50% in the past 50 years. Future sea level rise (SLR) rates are expected to increase, further threatening coastal habitats. In combination with SLR, the Everglades ecosystem has undergone large-scale drainage and restoration changing Florida’s coastal vegetation. Everglades National Park (ENP) has 21 coastal plant species threatened by SLR. My dissertation focuses on three aspects of coastal plant community change related to SLR and dehydration. 1) I assessed the extent and direction coastal communities—three harboring rare plant species—shifted from 1978 to 2011. I created a classified vegetation map and compared it to a 1978 map. I hypothesized coastal communities transitioned from less salt- and inundation-tolerant to more salt- and inundation-tolerant communities. I found communities shifted as hypothesized, suggesting the site became saltier and wetter. Additionally, all three communities harboring rare plants shrunk in size. 2) I evaluated invading halophyte (salt-tolerant) plant influence on soil salinity via a replacement series greenhouse experiment. I used two halophytes and two glycophytes (non-salt-tolerant) to look at soil salinity over time under 26 and 38‰ groundwater. I hypothesized that halophytes increase soil salinity as compared to glycophytes through continued transpiration during dry, highly saline periods. My results supported halophytic influence on soil salinity; however, not from higher transpiration rates. Osmotic or ionic stress likely decreased glycophytic biomass resulting in less overall plant transpiration. 3) I assessed the best plant life-stage to use for on-the-ground plot-based community change monitoring. I tested the effects of increasing salinity (0, 5, 15, 30, and 45‰) on seed germination and seedling establishment of five coastal species, and compared my results to salinity effects on one-year olds and adults of the same species. I hypothesized that seedling establishment was the most vulnerable life-stage to salt stress. The results supported my hypothesis; seedling establishment is the life-stage best monitored for community change. Additionally, I determined the federally endangered plant Chromolaena frustrata’s salinity tolerance. The species was sensitive to salinity >5‰ at all developmental stages suggesting C. frustrata is highly threatened by SLR.

Ecological knowledge plays a fundamental role in defining water conservation practices. Due to climate change and sea level rise, coastal aquifers are under salinity intrusion threat. In developing nations across the globe, coastal communities are dependent on groundwater for irrigation and drinking purposes. This chapter looks into the water harvesting methods used by local communities and their utility in augmenting livelihood systems of local communities. The Indian Sundarbans is the world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest, which is home to about 4.6 million population along with mangrove dwelling tigers. Unlike other forest areas, the Sundarbans do not have an indigenous population. The settlements in the Sundarbans can be traced back to the British colonial period (1905). They brought with them their traditional water harvesting systems. Household ponds are an essential part of the Sundarbans. Most of the landed farmers favours maintaining at least one small pond in their backyard. Pond management systems are one of the resource effective and cost efficient tools to address the issue of water security, household food security and augment economic conditions. Additionally it retains the monsoon precipitation, eventually recharging the groundwater and ameliorating the salinity intrusion threat. A socio-environmental project at 2017–2020 has commissioned 139 old pond re-excavations and 42 new pond excavations at the Indian Sundarbans. Baseline data on water quality when compared with post re-excavation results showed a drop in salinity (37%) in the groundwater levels near the pond sites along with providing water security for integrative farming methods. This proves that the local pond management system can play a prominent role in managing the salinity intrusion threat in coastal regions as well as play a key role in achieving the UN Sustainable development Goals (SDGs) in the remote, socio-economically marginalized coastal regions across the globe.

Seafloor morphology forms regional sea level rise (SLR), affecting ocean circulation. Although many studies have examined global sea level rise, there remains a lack of analyses that show how seafloor morphology modifies the rate and character of regional SLR. Previous studies have rarely investigated the geophysical interactions between seafloor morphology and sea level modulation, leaving a gap in explaining the spatial variability of sea level trends and accelerations. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of seafloor morphology on the regional rate and character of Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the western Pacific, in the Japan Trench region. Seafloor morphology, through its interactions with gravity and circulation processes, is a major factor in how SLR trends and accelerations are determined across different locations. The analysis is based on hybrid datasets: numerical models, bathymetric data, and altimetric time series of sea level anomalies (SLA) from 1993 to 2023. SLR trends, seasonal and nodal cycles were determined at 78 virtual stations. Regional rates of sea level changes were estimated using linear regression, harmonic analysis, Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), and Kalman filtering. Future SLR was simulated using a modified Monte Carlo method with an AR(1) autoregressive model and a block bootstrap technique. The results indicated that SLR trends are positively correlated (r ≈ 0.9) with mean dynamic topography (MDT) and negatively correlated with depth (r ≈ –0.4), confirming the impact of ocean circulation and seafloor morphology on regional SLR. The strong, positive correlation of trends with the amplitude of the 18.61-year nodal cycle (r > 0.8) indicates the important role of long-term tidal components. The highest SLR accelerations (up to 1.7 mm/yr2) were observed in locations of seamounts and subduction zones, while in the ocean trench, the rate of change stabilized or inversed locally. The results confirm the research hypothesis—the regional rate of sea level rise depends on the morphology of the seafloor and the associated geophysical and dynamic processes. The results have wide global application, supporting the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, the development of marine protection and management policies, infrastructure planning and coastal safety.

Subject. Every 8-10 years, the global economy faces financial crises that slow down and drive back its development. The UN's Sustainable Development Goals were announced as one of the ways to smooth the cycles. Most countries are actively involved in the fulfilment of this global project. An important precondition for the transition to a sustainable development path is the participation of the corporate sector. However, under capitalism, solving such a problem is not an easy task since many items within the UN's Sustainable Development Goals are not profitable for corporations and do not contribute directly to capitalisation. In this regard, the study and search for opportunities to introduce the UN's Sustainable Development Goals into corporate practices is a very important issue which corresponds to the modern global agenda of economic development. The purpose of the study is to analyse the involvement of major Russian corporations with the achievement of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals using open data based on corporate reports. The methods of the study included the analysis and synthesis of publicly reported data, grouping and expert assessment of published information related to the topic of the UN's SDGs in the annual reports of Russian corporations. Conclusions. The study revealed positive dynamics related to the involvement of companies with the achievement of the UN's SDGs. It is more pronounced in the areas where the UN's SDGs intersect the economic interests of corporations. It was shown that there is no uniform form for information disclosure, significant differences in the volume and quality of information presented in the companies’ reporting, and no common understanding of a number of goals by corporations. According to the results, most of the work aimed at fulfilling the UN's SDGs is carried out by Russian export companies with a predominance of private investors within the structure of business ownership. State-owned companies and companies focused on the domestic market are lagging behind in their development in this direction by all indications. As a recommendation, it was proposed to develop public reporting formats and better disclose the processes related to the fulfilment of the UN's SDGs.

The intertidal mangrove ecosystem of Indian Sundarban is now as a critical ecosystem due to climate changeinduced sea level rise. The present study analyses the responses, migration, destruction and vulnerability of the four deltaic mangrove ecosystem, such as Jambudwip, Bulcherry, Dalhousie and Bangaduni Islands along the ocean sides. The changes in this deltaic ecosystem studied by using GIS and remote sensing with collecting data about sea level of nearest tidal gauge station Haldia (2.59 ± 1.0 mm/year) and Diamond Harbor (4.67 ± 0.68 mm/year). The study finds that if the sea level rises about mangrove surface, the mangrove retreats landward and also decline the land areas, increases soil erosion that affected in the southern and south-western part where these vulnerable mangrove islands are located. Moreover, the study indicates that the low-level mangrove islands would threaten with the rates of increasing sea level under present climate change. However, the amount of net loss is about 10009 ha at the rate of 164.08 ha per year of the four more vulnerable islands. In the context of climate change induced sea level rise there also needs long-term thinking and coastal zone management option that must have economic feasibility. Thus, the dynamics of the mangrove ecosystem in response to projected sea level rise enable to take appropriate planning for reducing threats and human safety along the coastal areas.

Flooding due to tropical storm activity is a costly issue impacting the coastal communities of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. This study investigates the potential impacts of storm activity coupled with climate change-induced sea level rise on coastal communities, emphasizing on areas with high numbers of repetitive loss properties. Research methods include hotspot analysis using FEMA actuarial claims data for both counties from 1978 - 2014, hydrological modeling and LiDAR-derived data processing via ArcGIS Pro to simulate inundation scenarios based on recent hurricane events (Irma and Ian) combined with projected sea level rise for 2050 and 2100. Results indicate that by 2050, Miami-Dade coastlines could experience a 1.44% increase in flooding likelihood for Irma-like conditions, with a 9.5% increase in the highest-risk areas. For Ian-like conditions, the increase is 1.1% and 5.3%, respectively. Broward County shows slightly lower increases. By 2100, the impact accelerates, with Miami-Dade potentially seeing an 18.62% increase in the highest-risk areas for Irma-like conditions. The study highlights the critical need for long-term planning and targeted interventions in identified hotspot areas to mitigate future losses. It emphasizes the importance of incorporating location-based vulnerabilities in flood insurance policies and developing proactive flood risk management strategies to enhance community resilience in the face of increasing coastal flooding risks.

The activities of a higher education institution in the context of achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals are one of the important factors in ensuring economic, social and environmental security. Being educational and research centres of local communities, universities have an important impact on their residents, and with active educational activities and cooperation, this impact increases significantly. Another extremely important factor in this growth is teaching, research, educational and advisory activities and cooperation at the regional, national and international levels. The main purpose of this article is to describe the sustainable activities of a higher education institution to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals in the context of environmental, economic and social components in accordance with the standards assessed by international rankings of higher education institutions for sustainable development. Attention is focused on the international rankings of Times Higher Education University Impact Rankings. Additionally, the scheme of correlations between the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the basic spheres of global society and the differences between the interrelated concepts of “sustainable development” and “sustainability” are investigated. Sustainability is a harmonious combination of economic development, high social standards and a clean environment, reflecting the long-term goal of social relations, while according to UNESCO, sustainable development refers to the processes and ways of achieving it. In addition, sustainable development is mostly used as a legal term in the international regulatory framework. With regard to the basic components of sustainability (economy, environment and society), when studying their correlation with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, we can agree with the conclusion of a number of scholars that the economic component still prevails in the structure of the content of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. To a certain extent, this phenomenon is controversial, as the economy has a negative impact on the environment through industrial development. At the same time, in the absence of economic resources, it is impossible to invest in environmental restoration and environmentally sustainable management methods and means.