Research on the Audit Prediction Model of "Special Bonds + PPP" Project based on Machine Learning.

Abstract

This paper aims at the whole-process tracking audit problem of “special bonds + PPP” mode (hereinafter referred to as “special bonds + PPP”) in public infrastructure construction projects and establishes an audit evaluation prediction model based on the theory and method of machine learning. Firstly, based on expert interviews and the actual working process of “special bonds + PPP,” the comprehensive evaluation index system of the whole process tracking audit is established. Secondly, innovate audit technology methods and apply machine learning theories and methods such as support vector machine, back propagation neural network, multinomial logistic regression, and random forest to the whole tracking audit of “special bonds + PPP.” Finally, the real case evaluation sample data are selected, and the four established models, that is, SVM, BP, Multinom, and RF, are trained and predicted. After comparative analysis, the RF model with the highest accuracy is selected as the evaluation prediction model.