Research on Risk Assessment of the Transformer Based on Life Cycle Cost

Abstract

This paper proposes an optimization model of life cycle cost (LCC) of the transformer. First, to build the model of LCC of the transformer, the whole LCC of the transformer is divided into five costs, i.e., initial cost, operating cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and disposal cost. The whole LCC is calculated. Second, according to the data of several kinds of transformers, the relationship between the initial cost and the whole LCC is established by using the curve fitting method. The optimal initial cost that minimizes the whole LCC is calculated. Third, risk sources of LCC are identified and associated risk index is established based on the proposed model. To quantify risks, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to establish the index of the cost of each stage. According to the index, the risks can be sorted based on the importance. The degree of risks of LCC can also be obtained according to the index.