Research on Prediction Model of Insulation Failure Rate of Power Transformer Considering Real-time Aging State

Abstract

The failure rate is a reliability evaluation parameter based on probability in the power system. It is very important to calculate the reliability index and the equipment fault loss through the failure rate for the planning and operation of the power system. A failure model of large transformer failure rate is proposed. Firstly, the failure rate model of the transformer is established, and the current failure rate and running state of the transformer are obtained. Secondly, a multi-state Markov failure rate prediction model is established to predict the real-time failure rate of the transformer. Finally, the proportional failure rate model of aging failure process to correct the current state of the transfer rate of transformer, and then on the basis of a more accurate transformer real-time prediction failure rate. Example analysis results show that the multi-state Markov failure rate prediction model can be modified by the aging failure model, and the real - time failure rate can be predicted more accurately.