Research on predicting heat loads based on extracting temporal and spatial features of multiple buildings using data-driven methods

Abstract

Accurate heat load prediction is the key to ensure the stable operation of thermal system and effective planning of thermal resources. However, current heat load forecasting methods tend to treat individual buildings as isolated entities, ignoring the temporal and spatial correlation between buildings. In this study, we propose a data-driven model based on spatiotemporal coupling to predict short-term heat load. Firstly, the spatial and temporal correlation and the correlation among features of various buildings are analyzed by using the autocorrelation function and Spearman correlation coefficient. Secondly, synchronous wavelet transform is used to eliminate high frequency noise of heat load. Secondly, the spatial and temporal characteristics of building heat load are extracted by using the improved Informer model which is concerned with multi-scale graphs. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better predictive performance than the baseline model. It provides a reference for the accurate regulation of thermal system.