Research on Forecasting the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Based on the ARIMA-GARCH Model

Abstract

This paper aims to forecast the closing prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index using time series models. By combining the ARIMA and GARCH models, the study aims to improve the accuracy of short-term predictions for the index and enhance risk management capabilities. The research begins by collecting and preprocessing historical data of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Then, an ARIMA-GARCH model is established, and the model parameters are estimated and tested. Finally, the model is used to forecast the closing prices of the index, and the accuracy of the predictions is evaluated. The results demonstrate that the constructed ARIMA-GARCH model can provide accurate predictions for the closing prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. This research is expected to enhance prediction accuracy, improve risk management, increase practical value, and serve as a reference for similar studies.