Abstract
Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious diseases, with high transmissibility and quick dissemination. In this study, an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) dynamic model was established to explore the optimal prevention and control measures according to the epidemiological characteristics about varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China. Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18 and Microsoft Office Excel 2010 software were employed for the model simulation and data management, respectively. The result showed that the simulated result of SEIR model agreed well with the reported data when β (infected rate) equal to 0.067. Models showed that the cumulative number of cases was only 13 when isolation adopted when the infected individuals were identified (assuming isolation rate was up to 100%); the cumulative number of cases was only two and the TAR (total attack rate) was 0.56% when the vaccination coefficient reached 50%. The cumulative number of cases did not change significantly with the change of efficiency of ventilation and disinfection, but the peak time was delayed; when δ (vaccination coefficient) = 0.1, m (ventilation efficiency) = 0.7 or δ = 0.2, m = 0.5 or δ = 0.3, m = 0.1 or δ = 0.4 and above, the cumulative number of cases would reduce to one case and TAR would reduce to 0.28% with combined interventions. Varicella outbreak in school could be controlled through strict isolation or vaccination singly; combined interventions have been adopted when the vaccination coefficient was low.
Highlights
Varicella, commonly caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV), is an acute respiratory infectious disease characterised by pruritic macules, papules and blisters, often accompanied by headache, fever, sore throat or other respiratory infection symptoms [1]
In this study, a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic dynamics model was established to explore the optimal prevention and control measures according to the epidemiological characteristics about varicella outbreak in the school in ChangSha, a central city of China, which could provide a reference for dealing with similar incidents in other areas and formulate the prevention and control strategies of varicella outbreak in school
Data on varicella outbreak came from a public primary school in a central city in China reported by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of Changsha in the year 2016
Summary
Commonly caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV), is an acute respiratory infectious disease characterised by pruritic macules, papules and blisters, often accompanied by headache, fever, sore throat or other respiratory infection symptoms [1]. Due to ethical issues, limited research has been conducted regarding the comparative effectiveness of control measures for varicella [8], and it is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of preventive and control measures through traditional epidemiological methods. Dynamic model, such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model which successfully simulates the prevalence of infectious diseases [9, 10], has been used to evaluate the efficacy of preventive and control measures for infectious diseases. In this study, a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic dynamics model was established to explore the optimal prevention and control measures according to the epidemiological characteristics about varicella outbreak in the school in ChangSha, a central city of China, which could provide a reference for dealing with similar incidents in other areas and formulate the prevention and control strategies of varicella outbreak in school
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
