Requirements for Volume Flexibility and Changeability in the Production of Electrified Powertrains

Abstract

Electro mobility represents a key concept in response to current trends in the mobility sector. Yet, strong uncertainties regarding future demand of electric vehicles pose major challenges for capacity planning and procurement. Current forecasts predict a total market share of electric vehicles between 3 % and 24 % in 2025. This paper presents a study that aims to shed light on the challenges of capacity planning. We provide insights on the requirements of volume flexibility and changeability in the production and purchasing of electrified powertrains. The study relies on expert interviews in the field of production and procurement. We interviewed 13 managers from three leading, premium German carmakers. The interviews were conducted using a semi-structured guide that addresses six hypotheses concerning market development, long-term capacity planning, identification and definition of courses of action, interdependencies between the production and the supplier, specifics of the production system for electrified powertrains, and access to resources. The study's results show that demand volatility of electrified vehicles is expected to persist for the next 5 years. Consequently, existing demand uncertainties lead to a high number of different planning scenarios. This challenges capacity planners to provide enough capacity by relying on flexibility or changeability measures. Differences in supplier structures further require automotive OEM to change their mindset and to implement new processes. Despite those substantial changes, however, the task of purchasing remains vital to prevent quality losses or significant cost increases. Lastly, we show the importance of integrating supplier and purchasing department capacity planning process. Our main results indicate the need for developing a decision support system. It supports supply chain capacity planning of electric drive trains in order to enable fast and efficient reactions to volatile volumes.