Representation and evaluation of the closed-loop time of the kill chain under uncertainties}{Representation and evaluation of the closed-loop time of the kill chain under uncertainties

Abstract

The kill chain is important for forming system-combat capabilities based on an information system and improving combat effectiveness. The closed-loop time is one of the most important indexes characterizing the efficiency of the kill chain. The combat process has considerable uncertainties; the expression of the uncertainties and evaluation of the efficiency of the kill chain provide basic groundwork in kill chain research. In this paper, we construct three types of kill chain models based on the typical combat system and process, which are chain, network without loop, and network with loop. We then introduce three different closed-loop time calculations for the three models based on stochastic methods to express the uncertainties in the completion time, completion situation, and transformation situation of the activities in the kill chain. The results of this paper provide a theoretical basis and technical support with respect to problems in modeling, evaluating the effectiveness, and constructing the kill chain.