Abstract

Floods affect more people than any other natural hazard, thus flood warning and disaster management are of utmost importance. However, the operational hydrological forecasts do not provide information about affected areas and impact, but only discharge and water levels at gauges. We show that a simple hydrodynamic model operating with readily available data is able to provide highly localized information on the expected flood extent and impacts, with simulation times enabling operational flood warning. We demonstrate that such an impact forecast would have indicated the deadly potential of the 2021 flood in West Germany with sufficient lead time.

Highlights

  • 15 River flooding directly affect, on average, 125 million people annually, by evacuation, homelessness, injury or death (Douben, 2006), and flood exposure and losses are projected to increase owing to climate change and population and socioeconomic growth (Dottori et al, 2018)

  • We show that a simple hydrodynamic model operating with readily available data is able to provide highly localized information on the expected flood extent and impacts, with simulation times enabling operational flood warning

  • These maps could provide valuable and much more concrete information about the severity and the impact of the foreseen flood event, which can be used for a more targeted disaster management. They can assist in better warning and response recommendations for the population and help to reduce damages and fatalities. We show that such an impact forecasting can be performed using a hydrodynamic model, that is setup based on readily available data, and has model runtimes that allow the application in operational flood forecasting and warning systems

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Summary

Introduction

15 River flooding directly affect, on average, 125 million people annually, by evacuation, homelessness, injury or death (Douben, 2006), and flood exposure and losses are projected to increase owing to climate change and population and socioeconomic growth (Dottori et al, 2018). The operational hydrological forecasts do not provide information about affected areas and 10 impact, but only discharge and water levels at gauges. We show that a simple hydrodynamic model operating with readily available data is able to provide highly localized information on the expected flood extent and impacts, with simulation times enabling operational flood warning.

Results
Conclusion

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