Renewable electricity generation proposed pathways for the US and China

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the direction of the causal relationship between renewable electricity generation (REG) and economic growth for the US and China. The results show a unidirectional causality running from REG to economic growth for the US and China. Furthermore, a bi-directional long short-term (Bi-LSTM) algorithm is formulated to propose REG pathways based on four scenarios. First, we allow the Bi-LSTM network to make business-as-usual (BAU) predictions. The results show that the US and China’s REG as a percentage of total electricity output will hit ∼17.769 and ∼34.688 by 2030, respectively. Second, we set a 30% incremental target and estimate that the US and China REG will hit ∼17.198 and ∼31.105 by 2030, respectively. Third, the results from setting an incremental target of 50% depicts that the US and China REG will hit ∼19.844 and ∼35.891 by 2030, respectively. Finally, the 100% incremental target from the 2015 generation shows that the US and China REG are expected to hit ∼26.458 and ∼47.854 by 2030, respectively. As a policy implication, if investments in renewable electricity generation are not intensified, the US and China stand a risk of not meeting the pathway targets proposed.