Reliability assessment of cyclic load pore pressure response models for cohesive soil

Abstract

The deterministic models of cyclic load pore pressure response of cohesive soils are subjected to detailed reliability analysis aimed at assessing their predictability of the pore pressure. The secondmoment method of reliability analysis is adopted with comparison between measured and predicted pore pressures as the underlying principle. The results from case studies reveal that the models are associated with perceptible error. They predict mean pore pressures that are appreciably less than those actually measured and display a wide spread in most of the cases considered. This implies that the models give very conservative predictions of cyclic load pore pressures with a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, it is determined that the modesl have relative accuracies of 25%–30% for the case studies considered. Therefore it is concluded that the models, in their present deterministic forms, are not suitable for general application. As a result, they are only weakly recommended for use in predicting pore pressures generated in cohesive soils under cyclic loading.