Reliability Analysis of Failure-Dependent System Based on Bayesian Network and Fuzzy Inference Model

Abstract

With the rapid development of information and automation technology, the manufacturing system is evolving towards more complexity and integration. The system components will inevitably suffer from degeneration, and the impact of component-level failure on the system reliability is a valuable issue to be studied, especially when failure dependence exists among the components. Thus, it is vital to construct a system reliability evaluation mechanism that helps to characterize the healthy status of the system and facilitate wise decision making. In this paper, a reliability analysis framework for a failure-dependent system is proposed, in which copula functions with optimized parameters are used for the description of different failure correlations, and a fuzzy inference model is constructed to derive the subsystem reliability based on the component-level failure correlation. Finally, a Bayesian network is applied to infer the system reliability based on the system structure combined with the impact of failure correlation inside. Simulation results of the proposed method show that the inference results of system reliability are reasonable and effective in different cases. Compared with the copula Bayesian network method, the proposed method shows better adaptability to failure-dependent systems to varying degrees. This work can provide theoretical guidance for evaluating the reliability of manufacturing systems of different types.