Abstract
The unprecedented worldwide social distancing response to COVID-19 resulted in a quick reversal of escalating case numbers. Recently, local governments globally have begun to relax social distancing regulations. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we estimated the impact that social distancing relaxation may have on the pandemic. We fit a mathematical model to empirically estimated numbers of people infected, recovered, and died from COVID-19 in Manitoba. We then explored the impact of social distancing relaxation on: (a) time until near elimination of COVID-19 (< one case per million), (b) time until peak prevalence, (c) proportion of the population infected within one year, (d) peak prevalence, and (e) deaths within one year. Assuming a closed population, near elimination of COVID-19 in Manitoba could have been achieved in 4-6 months (by July or August) if there were no relaxation of social distancing. Relaxing to 15% of pre-COVID effective contacts may extend the local epidemic for more than two years (median 2.1). Relaxation to 50% of pre-COVID effective contacts may result in a peak prevalence of 31-38% of the population, within 3-4 months of initial relaxation. Slight relaxation of social distancing may immensely impact the pandemic duration and expected peak prevalence. Only holding the course with respect to social distancing may have resulted in near elimination before Fall of 2020; relaxing social distancing to 15% of pre-COVID-19 contacts will flatten the epidemic curve but greatly extend the duration of the pandemic.
Highlights
In January 2020, a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 was identified [1] as the causative agent of the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1]
Near elimination of COVID-19 in Manitoba could have been achieved in 4–6 months if there were no relaxation of social distancing
After allowing R0 in the model to decrease, we examine the impact of social distancing relaxation on the course of the epidemic by allowing R0 in the model to rise after the date at which social distancing relaxation policies were initiated
Summary
In January 2020, a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 was identified [1] as the causative agent of the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1]. COVID-19 has since spread rapidly to every country in the world, has been declared a pandemic [2,3]. As of May 13 2020, nine days after the first phase of social distancing relaxation began in Manitoba Canada, an estimated 4.17 million people worldwide were estimated to have contracted COVID-19, with over 288,000 deaths [4]. Beginning in May, local and regional governments worldwide began to relax social distancing regulations [11,12]. By July 27, 2020, infections had risen to an estimated 16.11 million people worldwide and 646,000 deaths [13]. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we aimed to estimate the impact that continued relaxation of social distancing regulations may have on local COVID-19 epidemics throughout the world, in the absence of vaccination
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