Abstract
Transport biofuels derived from biogenic material are used for substituting fossil fuels, thereby abating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Numerous competing conversion options exist to produce biofuels, with differing GHG emissions and costs. In this paper, the analysis and modeling of the long-term development of GHG abatement and relative GHG abatement cost competitiveness between crop-based biofuels in Germany are carried out. Presently dominant conventional biofuels and advanced liquid biofuels were found not to be competitive compared to the substantially higher yielding options available: sugar beet-based ethanol for the short- to medium-term least-cost option and substitute natural gas (SNG) for the medium to long term. The competitiveness of SNG was found to depend highly on the emissions development of the power mix. Silage maize-based biomethane was found competitive on a land area basis, but not on an energetic basis. Due to land limitations, as well as cost and GHG uncertainty, a stronger focus on the land use of crop-based biofuels should be laid out in policy.
Highlights
Biofuels are one way to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of transport, which in Germany stands for21% of total societal emissions [1]
A minimum market price is calculated, defined by the marginal cost (MC) of the most expensive option in the merit order, which is put into production to meet the given biofuel demand
Whereas advanced biofuels were found to be competitive only at low feedstock price increases when comparing the fuels on an energetic basis [3], especially substitute natural gas (SNG) was found to be competitive even at higher feedstock price increases on a GHG abatement basis
Summary
Biofuels are one way to reduce the GHG emissions of transport, which in Germany stands for21% of total societal emissions [1]. As the only EU country currently, set a goal of reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of land transport through biofuels or other renewable options, instead of an energetic biofuel goal, which was previously in place, in common with the other countries. Both biomass residues, as well as dedicated crops are used for biofuels’ production in Germany. Rape seed-based biodiesel (RME) and starch crop-based bioethanol, both conventional biofuels, are the most common pathways [2] These have a low overall yield and limited potential compared to other available options, which makes them uncompetitive in the long run on an energetic basis [3]. The cost-competitiveness of GHG abatement is in focus in the German energy transition [4], making the GHG abatement cost developments of biofuels highly relevant
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