Abstract
BackgroundThe relationship between COVID-19 and out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) has been shown during different phases of the first pandemic wave, but little is known about how to predict where cardiac arrests will increase in case of a third peak.AimTo seek for a correlation between the OHCAs and COVID-19 daily incidence both during the two pandemic waves at a provincial level.MethodsWe considered all the OHCAs occurred in the provinces of Pavia, Lodi, Cremona, Mantua and Varese, in Lombardy Region (Italy), from 21/02/2020 to 31/12/2020. We divided the study period into period 1, the first 157 days after the outbreak and including the first pandemic wave and period 2, the second 158 days including the second pandemic wave. We calculated the cumulative and daily incidence of OHCA and COVID-19 for the whole territory and for each province for both periods.ResultsA significant correlation between the daily incidence of COVID-19 and the daily incidence of OHCAs was observed both during the first and the second pandemic period in the whole territory (R = 0.4, p<0.001 for period 1 and 2) and only in those provinces with higher COVID-19 cumulative incidence (period 1: Cremona R = 0.3, p = 0.001; Lodi R = 0.4, p<0.001; Pavia R = 0.3; p = 0.01; period 2: Varese R = 0.4, p<0.001).ConclusionsOur results suggest that strictly monitoring the pandemic trend may help in predict which territories will be more likely to experience an OHCAs’ increase. That may also serve as a guide to re-allocate properly health resources in case of further pandemic waves.
Highlights
An increase in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) incidence has been observed during the first peak of the Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, especially in the most affected countries [1,2,3]
Our results suggest that strictly monitoring the pandemic trend may help in predict which territories will be more likely to experience an OHCAs’ increase
Considering the two periods separately, we found similar results as both in period 1 and in period 2: a significant correlation between the COVID-19 and the OHCA daily incidence was present in the entire territory (R = 0.4, p
Summary
An increase in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) incidence has been observed during the first peak of the Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, especially in the most affected countries [1,2,3]. This OHCAs’ increase has been explained both by infection-related causes and by pandemic-related causes. The relationship between COVID-19 and out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) has been shown during different phases of the first pandemic wave, but little is known about how to predict where cardiac arrests will increase in case of a third peak
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