Relations Between the World Record in Running at 100m and Altitude and Wind Speed

We model the development of world records of metric running events from the 100 meter dash to the marathon for men and women. First, we review methods to fit time-series curves of world records in general. We discuss methods to estimate curves and review candidate functional forms that fit the systematic shape of the progress of world records. Next, we fit the asymmetric Gompertz-curves for 16 events and compute implied limit values. In order to assess the implied limits we use the Francis (1943)-model to relate limit records and distance in a log-log specification. We compare men and women and conclude that there is a fixed difference in record times between the two sexes. Finally, using the log-log relationship between time and distance we calculate the development of the world record of the mile in a robustness check.

Dear Editor-in-Chief: Whipp and Ward claim that their 1992 article (4) investigating world-record running speeds recorded during the 20th century has been misrepresented in our recent article (2). Whipp and Ward (4) fit linear models to world-record running speeds for both men and women (distances 200 m, 400 m, 800 m, 1500 m, and marathon) and highlight with arrows, when the men's and women's predicted world record times would intercept (based on theoretical extrapolations of the linear models). In their letter, Whipp and Ward argue that their 1992 paper (4) neither stated nor implied that women will run world-record times faster than men. While it may not have been their intention, the very title of their article "Will Women Soon Outrun Men?" implies that such a conclusion might be inferred from the evidence presented (however unlikely), a conclusion further emphasized by the readers' attention being drawn to the points when the men and women's lines intercept. It is interesting to note that we are not alone in our interpretation; see Astrand (1). We are delighted by Whipp and Ward's support for our strategy of fitting a flattened "S-shaped" logistic curve and the resultant findings. We do, however, have reservations regarding Whipp and Ward's claim that their choice of linear models was guided by the "rule of parsimony." World records in a number of events (women's 200 m, 400 m, and 800 m) have not changed since 1992. However, the flattened S-shaped logistic model was found to fit these data significantly better than linear models; that is, the F ratio (and significance) associated with the two additional logistic curve parameters for women's 800-m world records was F2, 19 = 9.4 (P < 0.001); see Nevill and Whyte (2). Clearly, even prior to 1992, there was sufficient evidence to confirm the superiority of the flattered S-shaped logistic model compared with linear models. We now recognize that Ward and Whipp (3) had previously considered a sigmoid-like relationship when modeling their data. However, given that Ward and Whipp had considered similar nonlinear models, we find it even more surprising that in their letter, Whipp and Ward suggest that linear modeling is the most appropriate/parsimonious model to describe running world-record speeds, especially given the superior fit of the logistic model, even on data that remain unchanged since 1992. We are in complete agreement with Whipp and Ward regarding the multifactorial basis of human performance. It would appear clear from our evidence (2), however, that women will not run faster than men in Olympic distance events. Indeed, in recent as yet unpublished work we have observed similar trends in swimming world records that support to the use of the flattened S-shaped logistic model. These results confirm both a deceleration in more recent world-record swimming times and the absence of convergence between men and women. Alan Nevill Research Institute of Healthcare Sciences University of Wolverhampton Walsall, United Kingdom Gregory Whyte The High Performance Centre English Institute of Sport Bisham Abbey National Sports Centre Bisham, United Kingdom

The purpose of this article was to investigate whether swimming world records are beginning to plateau and whether the inequality between men and women's swimming performances is narrowing, similar to that observed in running world records. A flattened "S-shaped curve" logistic curve is fitted to 100-m, 200-m, and 400-m front-crawl world-record swimming speeds for men and women from 1 May 1957 to the present time, using the non-linear least-squares regression. The inequality between men and women's world records is also assessed using the ratio, Women's/Men's world record speeds. The results confirm that men and women's front-crawl swimming world-record speeds are plateauing and the ratio between women's and men's world records has remained stable at approximately 0.9. In conclusion, the logistic curves provide evidence that swimming world-record speeds experienced a period of "accelerated" growth/improvements during the 1960 - 1970s, but are now beginning to plateau. The period of acceleration corresponded with numerous advances in science and technology but also coincided with the anecdotal evidence for institutionalised doping. Also noteworthy, however, is the remarkably consistency in the women's/men's world record ratio, circa 0.9, similar to those observed in middle and long distance running performances. These finding supports the notion that a 10 % gender inequality exists for both swimming and running.

Assessment of wind resources in two parts of Northeast Brazil with the use of numerical models

The “Berlin Marathon” is the fastest marathon racecourse in the world and has witnessed 11 world records (WRs; eight in men and three in women). Weather conditions can have an important impact on race time and we therefore examined the influence of environmental conditions (i.e., temperature, sunshine, precipitation, barometric pressure, and cloud cover) on WRs and elite (i.e., winner, top three and top 10 finishers) marathon performances of men and women at the “Berlin Marathon” between 1974 and 2019. Average world record marathon times in men were 2:03:52 ± 0:01:19 h:min:s and 2:25:05 ± 0:08:25 h:min:s in females (p < 0.05). Male competitions were held 44 times (mean winning time: 2:09:48 ± 0:09:15 h:min:s) and female competitions 41 times (mean winning time: 02:30:35 ± 0:19:09 h:min:s; p < 0.05). World record performances were set at mean temperatures of 18.61 ± 2.59°C for men and 13.07 ± 4.01°C for women (p > 0.05). The ideal environmental conditions for world record performances for men were temperatures of 18.61°C (p > 0.05), sunny, mostly dry days, with higher atmospheric pressure and little cloud cover (all p > 0.05). In women, ideal conditions for world records performances were temperatures of 13.07°C (p > 0.05), with low atmospheric pressure (p > 0.05), but significantly more rain (p < 0.05), and with no sunshine (p < 0.05) and cloud cover (p < 0.05). With elite performances, the ideal temperatures were of 17.36 ± 4.33°C for men and 17.93 ± 4.07°C for women (p > 0.05), with little to no rain, and moderate cloud cover and sunshine (p > 0.05). In summary, novel findings are, that environmental conditions in world records performances differ between men and women, with women obtaining world records in bad weather (with rain, cloud cover, and no sunshine) and men in good weather (sunny, mostly dry days, with little cloud cover). Larger sample sizes are needed to examine sex differences and environmental conditions on world record marathon performances.

O'Connor, LM and Vozenilek, JA. Is it the athlete or the equipment? An analysis of the top swim performances from 1990 to 2010. J Strength Cond Res 25(12): 3239-3241, 2011-Forty-three world record swims were recorded at the 2009 Fédération Internationale de Natation (FINA) World Championship meet in Rome. Of the 20 FINA recognized long-course (50-m pool) swimming events, men set new world records in 15 of those events, whereas women did the same in 17 events. Each of the men's world records and 14 of the 17 women's records still stand. These performances were unprecedented; never before had these many world records been broken in such a short period of time. There was much speculation that full-body, polyurethane, technical swimsuits were the reason for the conspicuous improvement in world records. Further analysis led the FINA to institute new rules on January 1, 2010, that limited the types of technical swimsuits that could be worn by athletes. No long-course world record has been broken since then. We sought to understand this phenomenon by analyzing publicly available race data and exploring other possible causes including improvements in other sports, improvements in training science, changes in rules and regulations, gender differences, anaerobic vs. aerobic events, unique talent, and membership data.

Previous researchers have adopted linear models to predict athletic running world records, based on records recorded throughout the 20th century. These linear models imply that there is no limit to human performance and that, based on projected estimates, women will eventually run faster than men. The purpose of this article is to assess whether a more biologically sound, flattened "S-shaped" curve could provide a better and more interpretable fit to the data, suggesting that running world records could reach their asymptotic limits some time in the future. Middle- and long-distance running world record speeds recorded during the 20th century were modeled using a flattened S-shaped logistic curve. The logistic curves produce significantly better fits to these world records than linear models (assessed by separating/partitioning the explained variance from the logistic and linear models using ANOVA). The models identify a slow rise in world-record speeds during the early year of the century, followed by a period of "acceleration" in the middle of the century (due to the professionalization of sport and advances in technology and science), and a subsequent reduction in the prevalence of record-breaking performances towards the end of the century. The model predicts that men's world records are nearing their asymptotic limits (within 1-3%). Indeed, the current women's 1500-m world record speed of 6.51 m x s(-1) may well have reached its limit (time 3:50.46). Many of the established men's and women's endurance running world records are nearing their limits and, consequently, women's world records are unlikely to ever reach those achieved by men.

Records in Athletics Through Extreme-Value Theory

Females likely experience larger performance benefits from androgenic‐anabolic steroids than males. We set out to determine if there were temporal differences in select athletics (track and field) records between females and males. Exploratory aims included: (1) evaluating the improvements in female and male world records over time, and (2) investigating the influence of doping programs on male and female world records before and after 1990, when sports governing bodies began to implement random out‐of‐competition and systematic in‐competition drug testing. We collected the top 500 performances of all time for both sexes from an online database (worldathletics.org) in four running events (100, 200, 400 and 800 m) and two throwing events (discus throw and shot‐put). Data were stratified into quintiles based on world record ranking (1st to 100th, 101st to 200th, etc.). The temporal distribution of the top 100 female performers was significantly earlier than the top 100 male performers (year: 2000 ± 1 vs. 2005 ± 1, respectively; P < 0.0001). Within the event, the top performances occurred significantly earlier for females in the 800 m (year: 1995 ± 15 vs. 2003 ± 12; P = 0.0007) and shot‐put (year: 1992 ± 14 vs. 2003 ± 17; P = 0.0004). Among females, world records rapidly improved through the 1980s, but following 1990, the world records ceased to improve. Geographically, there was a greater representation of countries with state‐sponsored doping programs, specifically among female performances. We postulate these sex differences in the temporal distribution of top performances are likely associated with enhanced effectiveness of exogenous androgens (steroid doping) among female athletes with lower endogenous androgen hormones compared to males.

Echo Around the World

IntroductionBecause of its many participants and thorough records, competitive Masters swimming offers a rich data source for determining the rate of physical decline associated with aging in physically fit individuals. The decline in performance among national champion swimmers, both men and women and in short and long swims, is linear, at about 0.6% per year up to age 70–75, after which it accelerates in quadratic fashion. These conclusions are based primarily on cross-sectional studies, and little is known about individual performance declines with aging. Herein we present performance profiles of 19 male and 26 female national and international champion Masters swimmers, ages 25 to 96 years, participating in competitions for an average of 23 years.Methods and resultsSwimmers’ longitudinal data were compared with the fastest times of world record holders across ages 35–100 years by two regression methods. Neither method proved to accurately model this data set: compared with the rates of decline estimated from the world record data, which represent the best recorded times at given ages, there was bias toward shallower rates of performance decline in the longitudinal data, likely owing to a practice effect in some swimmers as they began their Masters programs. In swimmers’ later years, once maximum performance had been achieved, individual profiles followed the decline represented in the world records, and a few swimmers became the world record holders. In some instances, the individual profiles indicated performance better than the world record data; these swimmers achieved their times after the world record data were collected in 2005–2006.ConclusionDeclining physiological functional capacity occurs with advancing age, and this is reflected in the performance decrements of aging Masters swimmers. Individual swimmers show different performance trajectories with aging, declines being mitigated by practice, which improves both physiological capacity and swimming technique, particularly in the early years of participation. The longitudinal data of this study indicate that individuals can participate in high-intensity swimming over several decades, competitively improving over those decades until, in some instances, they become world record holders for their age groups.

We Are Off and Running.

We are interested in two questions on extremes relating to world records in athletics. The first question is: What is the ultimate world record in a specific athletic event (such as the 100-m race for men or the high jump for women), given today’s state of the art? Our second question is: How “good” is a current athletic world record? An answer to the second question also enables us to compare the quality of world records in different athletic events. We consider these questions for each of 28 events (14 for both men and women).We approach the two questions with the probability theory of extreme values and the corresponding statistical techniques. The statistical model is of a nonparametric nature; only some “weak regularity” of the tail of the distribution function is assumed. We derive the limiting distribution of the estimated quality of a world record.While almost all attempts to predict an ultimate world record are based on the development of world records over time, this is not our method. Instead, we use all top performances. Our estimated ultimate world record tells us what, in principle, is possible in the near future, given the present knowledge, material (shoes, suits, equipment), and drug laws.

Introduction: Pacing strategy plays a crucial role in running performance. However, pacing profiles from world records (WRs) in women have not been reported in the scientific literature yet. Therefore, the aims of the present study were to determine the pacing strategies used to achieve WRs in Olympic track long-distance running events, and to compare them between sexes. Material and method: Overall finishing and split times for 3,000-m steeplechase, 5,000-m and 10,000 m WRs until 2014 were collected where available. Those broken from 2015 to 2021 were extracted from the website (www.worldathletics.org). Pacing profiles were obtained for 37 3,000-m steeplechase, 44 5,000-m, and 42 10,000-m world records. Results: Both 5,000-m and 10,000-m WRs displayed a U-shaped pattern characterised by faster first and last kms than those in the central part of the race. Accordingly, significant overall variations in pace were found across the race during 5,000-m (P &lt;0.001, η2 = 0.302) and 10,000-m (P &lt;0.001, η2 = 0.22) WRs in both sexes. Furthermore, the first km was relatively faster in men than women in the 10,000-m event (P = 0.001, d = 0.70). Conclusions: Current 5,000-m and 10,000-m WRs followed a more even pacing strategy and with faster endspurts than previous records, potentially due to the assistance of new wavelight and shoe technologies. In addition, men’s and women’s 3,000-m steeplechase WRs followed U-shaped and even pacing strategies, respectively. Future world record attempts will likely benefit from the combined assistance of pacemakers and the wavelight technology, in order to facilitate even rather than U-shaped pacing strategies, especially in men.

This study aimed to forecast trends in swimming world records (WRs) and in the age of record holders. A total of 566 individual freestyle WRs (290 for males and 276 for females) were retrieved from open access websites. The frequency of observations in WRs in each decade and event was computed for males and females. The swimmers’ chronological age was converted into decimal age at the time of breaking the world record. ARIMA forecasting models and exponential smoothing techniques were used to examine historical trends and predict future observations. The WRs improved over time, and there was a nuanced pattern in the age of world record holders. While certain events (50 m and 100 m) showed swimmers achieving records at older ages, others (e.g., 200 m, 400 m, 800 m, and 1500 m) displayed variations. Forecasting shows a continuing improvement in WRs in the upcoming years, with the age of male world record holders stabilizing in shorter events and decreasing in longer distance ones, while for females, general stabilization should be expected for the majority of competitive events.