Relation between the upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Atlantic during boreal spring and the Indian monsoon rainfall during June–September

Abstract

ABSTRACTEarlier studies have identified a teleconnection between the Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), both of which are active during the boreal summer (AZM: June–August; ISMR: June–September). It is known that El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐like coupled dynamics are operational in the tropical Atlantic during the AZM events. Our goal here is to extend this process understanding to seek a predictive relation between the tropical Atlantic and the ISMR based on these known teleconnections. Monthly composite analysis of the zonal surface winds, heat content, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic tells us that signatures of a warm or cold AZM event begin to emerge as early as January of that year. We found significant correlations between the ISMR and the low level zonal winds in the western equatorial Atlantic and heat content in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in the boreal spring season. Tracking coherent changes in these winds and the evolution of the heat content in the deep tropical Atlantic in the boreal spring may offer the potential for skillful predictions of the ensuing summer monsoon anomalies, especially during non‐ENSO years when the predictability of ISMR tends to be low.