Rehabilitation Performance Prediction Models for Concrete Pavements

Abstract

Successful implementation of a pavement management system requires the necessary simulation tools, among which deterioration prediction models form an important part. These models can be either aggregate or incremental. Aggregate models calculate total accumulated deterioration and require knowledge of the past history of the pavement to predict future behavior. Incremental models, however, require only knowledge of the current pavement conditions. For this reason, incremental models generally are more advantageous when historical pavement condition data are not available. One of the most well-known and widely used methods for pavement evaluation is the World Bank program Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM), whose latest version, HDM 4, attempts to accommodate the analysis of both asphalt and concrete pavements. In the case of concrete pavements, the models used are of the aggregate type. Incremental prediction models are used for asphalt pavements. As part of research into the application of incremental models for the prediction of distresses in concrete pavements, rehabilitation performance prediction models in incremental form have been developed and are presented. Rehabilitation performance refers to pavements that already have received repair or rehabilitation to enhance their structural or functional capabilities. The rehabilitation models presented here have been developed by using mathematical combinations of models for new concrete pavements, derived as function of time. The results of validation analyses of the models are presented, along with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed models with respect to existing methods.