Abstract
Taking the Bohai Rim region as the research object and based on the relevant data of energy consumption, GDP, and energy structure from 2000 to 2019, the total carbon emissions of the provinces and cities from 2020 to 2050 were predicted. The carbon peak situation of each province and municipality in the Bohai Rim region was also analyzed. A comparative analysis of the peaks among the provinces and cities has been carried out. The results show the following: (1) it is predicted that Beijing will reach its carbon peak before 2025. Tianjin is predicted to reach its carbon peak before 2030. Renewable energy development and utilization technologies in the two municipalities are crucial to achieving carbon peaks when energy intensity is already low. (2) Shandong and Shanxi have a heavy energy structure, are coal-minded, and have high energy intensity, while the replacement rate of renewable energy is relatively low. Shandong and Shanxi are predicted to reach carbon peaks around 2030. Liaoning also has the problem of heavy industrial structure, and it is predicted to reach the carbon peak before 2027. (3) Hebei itself relies on Beijing, and its renewable energy utilization technology is relatively advanced. It is predicted to reach the carbon peak before 2026. The energy intensity of Inner Mongolia has decreased rapidly, and it is predicted to reach the carbon peak before 2029. Therefore, according to the forecast results and the analysis of the similarities and differences among the provinces and cities, some specific suggestions for the optimization of the energy structure and the development of renewable energy in each province and city have been proposed in order to promote the comprehensive realization of the regional carbon peak goal in the Bohai Rim region.
Highlights
China is the world’s second largest economy and one of the world’s largest energy consumers
Jiang et al [10] used the environmental Kuznets curve to quantitatively study the relationship between coal consumption, economic development, and carbon emissions, and the results showed that China has not yet reached the “inflection point.”
By the end of 2020, Beijing’s carbon intensity was expected to drop by more than 23% in 2015, exceeding the goal of the “ irteenth Five-Year Plan.” e successful pilot in Beijing has provided certain experience for the Bohai Rim provinces. e development of carbon emission trading has effectively promoted the reduction of energy intensity, thereby further conducting research on special plans for carbon emission reduction based on the vision of carbon neutrality
Summary
China is the world’s second largest economy and one of the world’s largest energy consumers. Qu and Guo [13] used the STIRPAT model to predict the peak of China’s carbon emissions in the future and proposed that if the economic and social development keeps a reasonable decline in carbon emission intensity, the peak time for China should be between 2020 and 2045. N represents the total consumption of renewable energy in primary energy consumption, including clean energy such as hydropower, bioenergy, solar energy, and nuclear energy, β represents the change rate of the carbon emission coefficient affected by the change in the replacement rate of renewable energy, and α indicates the change ratio of the carbon emission coefficient of the optimal allocation of coal, oil, and other traditional energy sources on the energy structure. Ct C0(1 + r)t(1 − g)t(1 − α − β)t
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