Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China

Abstract

Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960–2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima (AM) sub-daily rainfall series (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach) for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions: Northeast (NE1, NE2), Central (C), Central North (CN1, CN2), Central East (CE1, CE2, CE3), Southeast (SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4), and Southwest (SW). The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80–270 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) and 108–390 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37–104 mm and 53–140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1–24-h rainfall varied from −3–4 mm to −23–11 mm (−10%–10%) for 20-yr events, reaching −6–26 mm (−10%–30%) and −10–133 mm (−10%–90%) for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.